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The Report of the Iraq Inquiry
181.  A recurring issue between 2003 and 2007 was the difficulty of translating the
Government’s strategy for Iraq into action by departments. The system that drove policy
on the invasion of Iraq, which centered on No.10, could not be easily transformed into
a system for the effective management of the aftermath, in which a coherent collective
effort was needed to pull together the many interrelated strands of activity required.
Although Iraq was designated the UK’s highest foreign policy priority, it was not the top
priority within individual departments. As a consequence, Whitehall did not put significant
collective weight behind the task.
182.  One indication of that, as described in Section 13, was the failure to resource the
UK effort coherently. Others included:
Sir Nigel Sheinwald’s identification of “definite signs of Iraq fatigue”59 within
Whitehall in September 2004, and his advice to Mr Blair that he would have to
press for greater engagement.
Concerns expressed by Sir Nigel and Mr Blair in July 2005 about the ability to
deliver Sir Nigel’s “Comprehensive Strategy”.
Mr Jonathan Powell’s identification in September 2005 that amongst those
dealing with Iraq a “weary cynicism and feeling that it is all inevitable has sunk
in”60 and Mr Blair’s recognition that the new strategy proposed would require
Mr Powell to spend “much time pushing it through”.61
Mr Blair’s observation in April 2007 that the FCO and the MOD were unwilling to
push forward further work on reconciliation, meaning “we will have to do it”.62
Optimism bias
183.  Throughout the UK’s engagement in Iraq there was a tendency to focus on the
most positive interpretation of events.
184.  One manifestation of that was failure to give weight to the candid analysis that was
regularly supplied by the JIC, by some commanders in theatre, and by others that things
were going wrong.
185.  The default position was to judge that negative events were isolated incidents
rather than potential evidence of a trend which should be monitored and which
might require a policy response. This meant that underlying causes were not always
investigated and brought to light.
186.  This became a particularly serious issue in relation to considering whether the
conditions for transfer to PIC had been met.
59  Minute Sheinwald to Prime Minister, 13 September 2004, ‘Visit to Iraq: Some Impressions’.
60  Minute Powell to Prime Minister, 21 September 2005, ‘Iraq: Strategy’.
61  Manuscript comment Prime Minister to Powell on Minute Powell to Prime Minister, 21 September 2005,
‘Iraq: Strategy’.
62  Manuscript comment Blair on Minute Banner to Prime Minister, 27 April 2007, ‘Iraq Update, 26 April’.
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