The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
denying
terrorist or insurgent groups the opportunity to escalate violence
significantly
by
provoking organised sectarian violence. Recent security gains will
not be lost.
“VI. A
spike in attacks and especially casualties over the coming months,
following
withdrawal
of Multi-National Forces from the cities, might lead to perceptions
that
security
gains are eroding. But this would not indicate that violent groups
are
growing,
becoming more lethal or position a greater challenge to
Multi-National
Forces or
Iraqi Security Forces.
“VII.
Western military and civilian groups will remain a priority for
violent groups.”
445.
On 21 July, at
the request of DFID, a CIG considered the impact of
corruption
446.
The CIG judged
that corruption “has a significant impact on the economy
and
governance”
in Iraq, with cost estimates ranging from 3.5 to 10 percent of
GDP.
447.
The Assessment
stated:
“In 2008
the global anti-corruption society Transparency International (TI)
designated
Iraq the
third most corrupt country in the world, behind Somalia and
Burma.
TI’s Global
Corruption Barometer 2009 reported that 44 percent of Iraqis had
paid
some form
of bribe in the last 12 months, compared to 3 percent in the UK and
a
worldwide
average of 11 percent. 42 percent of Iraqis polled in TI’s survey
felt that
corruption
was most prevalent in the public sector and civil service, while 27
percent
considered
political parties most tainted. The survey suggested that public
trust in
the
judiciary and news media was much higher.”
448.
The CIG judged
that government ministries were “riddled with” corruption
and
recorded
that:
“Iraq’s
Commission on Integrity (CI) has identified the Ministries for Oil
and Foreign
Affairs as
prominent embezzlers …”
449.
The CIG
reported that, in 2006, Mr Stuart Bowen, the US Special
Inspector
General for
Iraq Reconstruction had referred to a “virtual pandemic” of
corruption costing
Iraq US$4
billion a year (equivalent to approximately 3.5 percent of GDP).
The CIG
assessment
stated:
“Later
estimates suggest the cost of corruption in the South alone could
be as
high as
$12bn pa. This range of cost estimates suggests corruption at a
level
which is
significantly hindering macroeconomic recovery, as well as
damaging
local
economics. In March 2007, Rhadi Hamza al-Rhadi, CI Chairman,
claimed
that
corruption was worse than under Saddam’s regime. CI had brought
corruption
charges
against eight Ministers and forty Directors-General, but all had
fled
184
CIG
Assessment, 21 July 2009, ‘How Corrupt is Iraq?’
458