9.7 | May
2008 to October 2009
441.
A few days
later, Mr Prentice reported that, on 30 June, US troops
completed the
transfer of
responsibility for all urban areas to the Iraqi
Government.182
442.
The Iraqi
Government had declared the day a national holiday, with the
title
National
Sovereignty Day or the Day of Dignity. Despite increased violence
in the
run‑up to
the transfer, the arrangements on the day were “broadly successful”
with
the exception
of a car bomb in Kirkuk which killed 33 people.
443.
Mr Prentice
reported that Prime Minister Maliki compared the day to the
Arab
Revolt
against the British in 1920 (see Annex 1). President Talabani
thanked the
coalition
for its commitment and sacrifice, although “noticeable by its
absence was any
statement
of thanks to coalition forces from the Prime Minister”.
Mr Prentice reported
that the
public mood was “a mixture of pride and apprehension” and judged
that “the
GoI is now
unequivocally in the lead and the Iraqi people are watching to see
whether it
can deliver”.
444.
At its meeting
on 8 July, the JIC examined the likely political and security
trends
in Iraq
over the next six months.183
Its Key
Judgements included:
“I. Maliki
is determined to secure a second term as Prime Minister in the
2010
national
elections. This influences all of his political decisions and
relationships.
“II. The
current fluidity of Iraqi politics makes predictions difficult. But
Maliki will
probably be
able to assemble a cross-sectarian nationalist coalition if he can
attract
a Sunni
partner. Given the Iraqi government’s continuing commitment to the
success
of the Sons
of Iraq initiative, his best chance probably lies with the
Awakening
movement,
though will retreat towards a Shia alliance if he doubts the
stability
or popularity
of a cross-sectarian nationalist alliance.
“III. The
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) will probably seek to join
Maliki
in any type
of coalition; it is less clear whether Maliki will accept an
alliance with
ISCI, given
its reputation as a sectarian party influenced by Iran. The
Sadrists are
preparing
to participate fully in the elections and want to be part of a
nationalist
alliance,
but Maliki and Sadr will not commit to an alliance until polling is
complete.
…
“V.
Violence across Iraq will probably remain around the current level
during 2009
– an
average of about 130 attacks per week compared with nearly 1,600
attacks
per week in
mid 2007. The progressive shift from violence to politics will
continue,
182
eGram
24067/09 Baghdad to FCO London, 1 July 2009, ‘Iraq: Withdrawal of
US Troops from Urban
Areas, 30
June’.
183
JIC
Assessment, 8 July 2009, ‘Iraq: Political & Security
Trends’.
457