9.7 | May
2008 to October 2009
the Kurds’
share of the national budget and in the creation of the Hadba
party, which
successfully
campaigned in provincial elections against Kurdish domination in
Ninawa.
407.
The CIG’s Key
Judgements included:
“I. The
prospects for a ‘grand bargain’ encompassing constitutional review,
disputed
internal
boundaries and hydrocarbons legislation are poor before national
elections
… Maliki
and Barzani have an opportunity to establish a constructive
dialogue …
which might
reduce friction between Arabs and Kurds and increase the chances
of
eventually
reaching a deal. But it is not clear whether they will take
it.
“II. The
relationship between the governments in Baghdad and Erbil is
largely
shaped by
Maliki and Barzani …
“III.
Agreement on national hydrocarbons legislation is the most likely
area for
progress
among the issues dividing Arabs and Kurds. But this will not be
achieved
in 2009.
There will also be no real progress on the review of Iraq’s
Constitution
this year.
“IV. The
Iraqi and Kurdish government have incompatible maximalist demands
over
disputed
territories. International pressure will be needed on both sides if
they are
to take the
opportunity to establish a constructive dialogue over Kirkuk
following the
UN
report.”
408.
On 15 May, Maj
Gen Salmon sent his end of tour report to Air Marshal
Stuart
Peach,
Chief of Joint Operations.166
409.
Maj Gen Salmon
reflected that October 2008 had been a significant turning
point
in Basra,
with the local people ceasing to be “preoccupied with security” and
“looking to
the future
with greater optimism”.
410.
Maj Gen Salmon
was optimistic both about the progress that had been
made
during his
time in post and the prospects for the future:
“Basra has
arguably progressed from anarchy to democracy in 12 months.
The
militias
have been defeated and residual insurgent activity is limited …
There is
widespread
acknowledgement of the Rule of Law, with judicial processes
being
developed
to meet the needs of a democratic society … In terms of wider
Basrawi
security,
policy and border security have improved considerably … The first
free and
fair
elections in Iraqi history have been conducted without violence or
intimidation
and the
results have been ratified and acknowledged internationally. The
new
Provincial
Administration is now established. International trade through UQP
[Umm
Qasr Port]
is flourishing and the Port … is secure. BIA [Basra International
Airport]
has been
handed over to trained Iraqi management. Progress has been
made
166
Report
Salmon to MA/CJO, 15 May 2009, ‘COMUKAMPHIBFOR OP TELIC 12/13 (HQ
MND(SE)
Post Operational
Report (POR)’.
451