9.7 | May 2008 to October 2009

372. In relation to relationships with the US, Lt Gen Cooper commented:

“2008 was a difficult year in Iraq for the UK-US relationship, but it has recovered to

a degree since then. A degree of certainty in our position in MND(SE) has helped.

Whilst it is true that many US officers would have wished us to stay with them until

the end of their mission here, the fact that we now have a defined end date to which

both parties are working has allowed harmony in planning to be maintained.”

373. Mr Prentice reported on 5 March that President Obama’s announcement had

received “blanket media coverage” in Iraq.150 Given his campaign pledge to withdraw

troops within 16 months of taking office, the announcement had come as little surprise.

But the Iraqi Government had welcomed the statement and, although some were

nervous about the implications, public opinion in Iraq appeared to be mostly positive.

374. Mr Prentice commented that the “phantom elephant in the room” was the promised

referendum on the US Security Agreement, described in the law that ratified the US

SOFA. The US and the MNF were working on the basis that there would not be a

referendum.

375. On 9 March, a CIG considered the implications of Iraq’s provincial elections, at

the request of the FCO.151 The CIG noted that the average turnout was 51 percent and

that the formerly dominant parties all performed poorly. Overall, Prime Minister Maliki’s

“Rule of Law” coalition and secular Sunni parties were the winners at the expense of the

Kurds and Islamist parties. Sadrists won “a handful of seats” on all southern councils

and in Baghdad.

Rule of Law

ISCI

Sadrists

Allawi’s coalition

Ja’afari’s coalition

Hadba

Total seats

Party

Seats

126

55

41

26

23

19

440

376. The CIG assessed that improved security at the elections (11 reported attacks,

compared with some 300 in 2005) indicated both improvement in ISF capability and

150 eGram 8095/09 Baghdad to FCO London, 5 March 2009, ‘Iraq: Reactions to Obama’s Announcement

on Military Drawdown’.

151 CIG Assessment, 9 March 2009, ‘Iraq After the Provincial Elections’.

445