9.7 | May
2008 to October 2009
and Kurdish
communities. Pressure on the Iraqi budget by the low price of oil
will
increase
factional competition over allocation of resources …
“III.
Government mishandling of Sons of Iraq Sunni auxiliaries would
present a
serious
risk of a return to a large-scale Sunni insurgency. This is
unlikely during
2009.
“IV. The
threat from Al Qaida in Iraq has reduced significantly. It will
continue to
exploit
ethnic and sectarian tensions and will remain capable of sporadic
high
profile
attacks for the foreseeable future, but lacks sufficient support
from the Sunni
community
or a sufficiently volatile sectarian environment to pose a
strategic threat
in
2009.
“V. The
Sadrist threat has declined. But Sadrists are likely to cause some
instability
through
their criminal activities and intimidation of Shia communities,
particularly if
they fail
to achieve political representation. Some Iranian-backed Shia
militants see
attacks on
withdrawing US forces as an opportunity to claim a victory but
coalition
and Iraqi
forces will be able to prevent them from derailing the withdrawal
plans.”
339.
On 31 January,
provincial elections were held across Iraq.133
The BBC
reported
that there
was “virtually no violence at all” on polling day.
340.
On 9 February,
Mr Brown’s Assistant Private Secretary told the Private
Secretaries
of
Mr Miliband and Lord Mandelson that Mr Brown had endorsed
the strategy, which was
consistent
with the approach described to Parliament on 18
December.134
Mr Brown
had
“welcomed
the recent provisional [sic] elections and discussed with Gen
Petraeus the
good
progress with military drawdown planning”. Mr Brown was
reported to be “keen to
ensure
maximum savings as we move to a normal bilateral relationship” but
agreed that:
“… the UK
will retain an important strategic interest in the emergence of a
stable and
prosperous
Iraq, able to contribute to regional stability and global energy
security;
and that we
will have important bilateral interests in Iraq which need to be
secured
and
promoted …
“In
particular, the Prime Minister continues to believe that improving
trade and
investment
in Iraq is key both to consolidating the security gains that have
been
made, and
ensuring UK investors are able to benefit from the opportunities in
Iraq
… We also
need to ensure that investors in Basra continue to be supported as
our
military
hands over to US.”
341.
The Assistant
Private Secretary wrote that a planned visit by Prime
Minister
Maliki to
an Investor Conference in London at the end of April would be “an
important
133
BBC
News, 6
February 2009, UN hails
Iraq election result.
134
Letter
Catsaras to Hickey, 9 February 2009, ‘Iraq Strategy’.
437