The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
milestone
for showcasing progress in the transition to a new relationship
with Iraq” and
requested
advice on the communications strategy for Iraq over the coming six
months.
He recorded
that Cabinet Office officials had been asked to provide advice on
“ambitious
deliverables”
for Prime Minister Maliki’s visit.
342.
Lt Gen Cooper
reported the provisional results of the provincial elections
to
ACM Stirrup
on 9 February.135
He
wrote:
“There were
several key themes. In Baghdad (with 38 percent) and the
south,
PM Maliki’s
State of Law Coalition made very significant gains; in Basra and
Najaf
they were
the leading party with 37 percent and 16 percent respectively. In
the
troubled
provinces of Ninawa and Diyala there was significant change,
principally
reflecting
the Sunnis’ return to local representation. In Anbar, fears of a
violent
reaction …
were averted when the two principal parties shared the spoils
(with
18 percent
and 17 percent respectively). In Diyala the Sunni/Kurd/Shia
divide was
resolved in
favour of the Sunni and Kurds. Maysan was lost by the Sadrists
who
were pushed
into second place with Maliki leading with 18
percent.”
343.
Confirmed
results were expected on 23 February at the earliest.
344.
Mr Baker
visited Basra in mid-February.136
Reporting his
“personal impressions”
to senior
FCO officials he commented:
“The
provincial elections have left a definite winner – the Maliki
coalition – but all
leading
politicians were clear that they wanted to work together for the
good of
Basra. This
laudable desire could be torpedoed by Maliki if he decides to
impose
his own man
as governor. But the initiative encouraged by us last year to
bring
the parties
together under a unity and justice heading, has paid dividends
in
encouraging
political co-operation.
“This unity
argues well for the next Provincial Council. Which is as well, as
it will face
many
challenges … I have talked through potential for investment and
assistance
with the
political leadership who responded enthusiastically to the thought
of UK
help. But
they have little ideas of their own and their views on service
delivery and
investment
came across as naive.
“I
therefore discussed with the team in Basra ways in which we should
be looking to
help over
the next few months and especially as we begin to draw down
militarily.
We have
begun the investment work … and we are well advanced on
capacity
building
which will be taken over by the UN, funded by DFID. We now need
to
identify
areas for UK companies to get involved … Our continuing role in
capacity-
building
will help identify further niche areas.
135
Minute
Cooper to CDS, 9 February 2009, ‘SBMR-I’s Weekly Report (339) 9 Feb
09’.
136
Minute
Baker to Jenkins, 19 February 2009, ‘Iraq: Visit to
Basra’.
438