9.7 | May
2008 to October 2009
International
Airport by the end of the year and was “on track” for a fundamental
change
of mission
next year. The US had submitted the final text of its proposed SOFA
though
it was
unclear whether or not the Iraqi Government would agree
it.
238.
Mr Hutton
added that UKTI was about to establish a presence in Baghdad,
but
there was a
need to consider what more could be done. Some commentators
were
suggesting
that Basra had more potential for development as a regional centre,
yet there
were no
British companies active in southern Iraq.
239.
Concluding the
discussion, Mr Brown said that further consideration would
need
to be
given to building economic links with Iraq.
On 4
November, Mr Barack Obama was elected as the 44th President of
the United
States.
He
telephoned Mr Brown on 6 November.89
Mr Brown
spoke of the strength of US/UK
common
purpose in Iraq – success would not be achieved by military means
alone.
240.
In an
Assessment issued on 6 November, the JIC examined the impact of
the
centralisation
of power under Prime Minister Maliki.90
The JIC
judged:
“Though
[Prime Minister Maliki] continues to operate broadly within a
constitutional
democratic
framework, he has brought about greater centralisation of
power.
“Maliki’s …
approach is driven by … suspicion of political rivals and his
perception
that
centralising power is essential to getting things done in
stabilising Iraq …
“Constraints
on Maliki … include the judiciary; the Shia religious
authorities;
parliament;
his desire to share responsibility as broadly as possible for
more
controversial
decisions …
“… Maliki’s
political rivals remain unwilling and probably unable at this stage
to
unseat him
…
“Maliki
remains highly suspicious of HMG’s intentions in Iraq. He wants to
restrict the
future UK
military presence to no more than a small number of training staff
beyond
the end of
this year. Maliki will continue trying to maintain relationships
with Iran and
the US, but
the influence of both over him will decline further throughout
2009.”
89
Letter
Fletcher to Gould, 7 November 2008, ‘Prime Minister’s Call with US
President-elect, 6 November’.
90
JIC
Assessment, 6 November 2008, ‘Iraqi Politics: Maliki’s in
Charge’.
421