9.7 | May
2008 to October 2009
225.
Mr Prentice
told the Inquiry that US negotiations on jurisdiction and
legal
immunities
would “set the bar” for the UK.83
226.
In
mid-October, a Cabinet Office official wrote to Mr Brown’s
Private Secretary for
Foreign
Affairs with advice on a visit to Iraq, potentially including
downtown Basra, being
contemplated
by Mr Brown.84
He advised
that such a visit “would present a number of
difficult
security issues, with presentational implications”. The official
continued:
“The
security situation in Basra has improved considerably over the past
12 months.
But it is
far from being inherently safe. Members of the JAM Special Groups
are
returning
to Iraq from Iran and Syria and there are continuing reports of a
return
to
violence, including assassination. And although the operating
environment for
militants
and terrorists in Basra is difficult, it is by no means impossible
… Moreover,
there
remain corrupt elements in the Iraqi police, many affiliated to
JAM, for whom
the Prime
Minister would be an attractive target …
“Against
this background, we advise against any visit by the Prime Minister
to
downtown Basra
at this stage. If such a
visit was to be contemplated there would
need to be
a significant security operation to ensure the Prime Minister’s
safety.
This in
turn would raise presentational difficulties as the security
precautions that
would be
necessary would not be consistent with a return to
normality.”
227.
Mr Brown’s
Assistant Private Secretary advised Mr Brown
that:
“Whilst
there is progress, there is no new policy announcement to add to
your
July
statement … A timetable and numbers for drawdown would be new and
MOD
have
planning figures – but (a) any plans depend on an agreed SOFA or
UNSCR
rollover
first (b) there may be a spike in violence after the elections (c)
MOD
have
operational security concerns about releasing our timetable – they
argue
it encourages
increasing attacks on UK troops so that militias can claim
success
228.
The Assistant
Private Secretary further advised that visiting Basra before
the
US elections
in early November risked annoying Prime Minister Maliki at a time
when
the UK SOFA
was still being negotiated.
229.
Although
Mr Brown deferred his proposed visit, Mr John Hutton, who
had
succeeded
Mr Browne as Defence Secretary on 3 October, visited Iraq in
mid October.86
In a letter
reporting his visit, Mr Hutton told Mr Brown that in
Basra he had:
“… found
our troops in excellent spirits. They clearly feel that they are
doing
important
work and are making a real difference.”
83
Public
hearing, 6 January 2010, page 40.
84
Minute
Gibbons to Fletcher, 16 October 2008, ‘Prime Minister’s Possible
Visit to Iraq’.
85
Email
Catsaras to Brown, 20 October 2008, ‘Iraq Visit?’
86
Letter
Hutton to Prime Minister, 23 October 2008, [untitled].
419