The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

Airport operational and supporting provincial elections. That would take until mid 2009.

Negotiations could begin immediately, in advance of a further meeting in October.

143. Summing up the discussion, Mr Brown concluded that:

“… in principle they had agreed to negotiate until October this year; that the tasks

the UK was undertaking would be complete by mid-2009; and that Maliki supported

a further training role for the British Army while we finished our current tasks. It was

essential that the GOI [Government of Iraq] understood that by the end of December

2009, we should have an MOU giving our forces a legal basis. He and Maliki should

speak monthly to avoid misunderstandings.”

144. Later the same day, Mr Brown met Ambassador Crocker and Gen Petraeus.52

He told them that after meeting Prime Minister Maliki he felt that there was agreement to

a transition process. Although Prime Minister Maliki had said he wanted an agreement

with the UK, Mr Brown felt that he was “unclear about what he wanted in it”.

145. Ambassador Crocker explained that the White House statement the previous day

did not mean a change in US policy: the “time horizons” were “aspirational” and did not

have fixed dates. The Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi Government had so

far “made good progress”. In response to a question from Mr McDonald, Ambassador

Crocker said that he thought rolling over the UN Security Council resolution once again

would be politically impossible for Prime Minister Maliki.

146. Following Mr Brown’s visit, on 21 July Lt Gen Cooper reported that the UK

appeared to have a way forward to secure an agreement with Iraq in terms of future

UK military contribution.53 But he cautioned against an assumption that the Iraqi

position would remain unchanged and urged “it will be essential for London to be very

closely engaged with this office, in order to be fully informed on the current Baghdad

atmospherics”.

147. Lt Gen Cooper also reported “a week of notable milestones” in Iraq. They

included the return of Tawafuq to the Government, following approval by the Council

of Representatives of a ministerial slate that appointed six Tawafuq ministers, and oil

production exceeding pre-war levels for the first time. The provincial elections law was

scheduled to pass through the Council of Representatives, giving a possible election

date of 22 December, but there was “no overwhelming sense that it will actually happen”.

148. On 22 July, Mr Brown told Cabinet that he would be making a statement to the

House of Commons later that day.54

149. Mr Brown explained that UK force levels in Iraq had reduced to 4,100. A planned

further reduction to 2,500 had been suspended in March when the Iraqi Government

52 Minute [unattributed], [undated], ‘Prime Minister’s Meeting with Petraeus and Crocker, 19 July 2008’.

53 Minute Cooper to CDS, 21 July 2008, ‘SBMR-I’s Weekly Report (310) 21 Jul 08’.

54 Cabinet Conclusions, 22 July 2008.

404