The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“small
scale” mentoring of 14 Division’s HQ, training the Iraqi Navy and
supporting
officer
training. These would “resemble normal defence
co-operation”.
128.
Mr Miliband
warned that provincial elections might be postponed until April
2009,
or to
coincide with Iraqi Parliamentary elections the following
autumn.
129.
Mr Alexander
reported on Mr Wareing’s draft economic strategy (this is
addressed
in Section
10.2).
130.
Concluding the
discussion, Mr Brown welcomed the opportunity that his 22
July
statement
would provide to set out UK policy publicly, given the risk that
the next US
President
might ask the UK to “hold further changes”. He summed up that the
UK’s
key goals
for the year ahead should be to push for early provincial
elections; hand over
Basra
Airport by the end of 2008; produce an economic plan shortly; and
complete
training of
14 Division by the end of May 2009.
131.
On 15 July,
the Assessments Staff reviewed recent intelligence on foreign
fighters
in Iraq
against an earlier JIC judgement46
that the
situations in Iraq and Afghanistan were
“creating a
new supply of battle-hardened jihadists that will add resilience to
the wider
“Since
2003, we estimate that several thousand foreign fighters … have
travelled
to Iraq to
undertake jihad. We judge that the majority of these joined Al
Qaida in
Iraq (AQ-I)
and became either suicide bombers or were killed in other action.
But
a proportion
have left Iraq as experienced and competent jihadist fighters
…
“The total
number of foreign fighters who have left Iraq since 2003 remains
unclear
… We are
aware of only a handful of individuals who have come to the UK
after
fighting in
Iraq, and have seen no intelligence to suggest that these
individuals are
currently
involved in attack planning.
“The impact
of the return from Iraq of foreign fighters has, so far, been less
than the
JIC
predicted.”
133.
On 17 July,
Maj Gen White-Spunner reported that MND(SE) was an entirely
UK/US
organisation,
apart from one Australian “handling their loose ends”.
134.
Maj Gen
White-Spunner also reported that he had discussed with Lt Gen
Austin
the
transfer of the UK’s remaining responsibilities in Maysan, Muthanna
and Dhi Qar
to
Multi-National Division (Centre) (MND(C)).48
They agreed
the transfer made military
46
JIC
Assessment, 17 May 2007, ‘International Islamist Terrorism: Who’s
Winning?’
47
Intelligence
Update Assessments Staff, 15 July 2008, ‘International Terrorism:
The Departure of Foreign
Fighters
from Iraq’.
48
Minute
White-Spunner to CJO, 17 July 2008, ‘GOC MND(SE) Weekly Letter – 17
July 2008’.
402