The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“III.
Whether Sadr’s political rivals, including those in the JAM Special
Groups and
the new
Iraqi National Gathering, gain traction with the grassroots Sadrist
movement
will
probably depend more on Sadr’s next moves than on what they can
deliver for
the Shia
…
“IV. The
Iranians for now probably place more weight on overt political
support
to their
traditional allies in ISCI/Badr than on military support for JAM.
In areas of
the South
where the coalition’s footprint has diminished, ‘Iranian
Intelligence’ may
have started
to replace the coalition as the focus of JAM’s campaign to get rid
of
foreign
influence.
…
“VII. Sadr
will almost certainly extend the ‘freeze’ on JAM activities beyond
this
month. But
it will remain fragile and could give way in some areas at any time
…
A large
proportion of JAM will remain engaged in often violent
criminality.”
784.
The JIC
assessed that fierce competition for the Shia vote between
ISCI/Badr and
OMS/JAM was
likely to result in further clashes as the provincial elections
approached
(not
expected until late 2008 at the earliest). However, under pressure
from the Shia
religious
authorities, both sides had established joint committees to avert
clashes, but
the JIC
judged that “some local Badr commanders are using the cover of ISF
to exploit
the JAM
freeze and irreversibly weaken their chief rival”.
On 9
February 2008, Mr Richard Butler, a British journalist working
with CBS, was
kidnapped
along with his Iraqi interpreter in Basra.379
The
interpreter was freed three days
later.
Mr Butler was eventually freed on 14 April during a raid by
members of the Iraqi
Army, who
were believed to have been looking for a weapons
cache.
785.
On 11
February, Lt Gen Rollo reported having discussed the MND(SE)
boundary
with Gen
Petraeus, who was keen that the UK two-star commander had a proper
role,
and did not
regard the tactical command and control advantages of a single
nation
covering an
area of operations as decisive.380
Gen
Petraeus also thought that the MNF
divisional
boundaries should mirror those of the Iraqi Army, which was likely
to have a
headquarters
responsible for both 10th Division (Muthanna, Dhi Qar and Maysan)
and
14th
Division (Basra).
379
BBC
News, 30 April
2008, Journalist
tells of Iraq kidnap.
380
Minute
Rollo to CDS, 11 February 2008, ‘SBMR-I’s Weekly Report (287) 10
Feb 08’.
326