The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
together in
some areas as recognition of the political benefits of unity is
slowly
emerging.
The formation of new alliances and willingness of some groups
to
negotiate
at a tactical level with the MNF shows that engagement is possible
–
albeit locally.
“III. The
combination of Sunni resistance and pressure from MNF and Iraqi
security
forces is
limiting AQ-I’s freedom to operate. It is struggling and no longer
driving
sectarian
violence. But AQ-I remains capable of undermining stability in
Iraq: it can
still hit
strategic targets. Without sustained military pressure and less
sectarian
politics,
it could regenerate and reinvigorate sectarian
violence.”
685.
Looking ahead,
the JIC concluded:
“We see no
sign that the Sunni insurgency will recover its momentum at least
as
long as the
US ‘surge’ and coalition support for CLCs lasts …
“If the
anti-AQ-I movement continues throughout 2008, we would expect Iraq
to
become a
less attractive destination for those wishing to join AQ-I and
fight the
global
jihad. Some Iraqis might abandon AQ-I for other insurgent groups of
CLCs.
However, we
judge the Sunni community’s continued rejection of AQ-I and
tolerance
of the MNF
will be fragile so long as Sunni grievances are not being
addressed
quickly
enough. CLC members expect financial and political rewards …
Recently
announced
Iraqi and US plans to release about 15,000 (mainly Sunni) detainees
by
the end of
2008 might temporarily appease some more Sunnis, if implemented.
But
we judge
there is still a high risk that the current security gains will
fade after the US
‘surge’
ends in April unless Maliki’s government visibly improves public
services in
Sunni
areas, provides lasting employment, allows for early provincial
elections and
reverses
its policy on de-Ba’athification.”
686.
On 12
December, Prime Minister Maliki and Governor Waili jointly hosted
a
meeting of
the Basra Development Forum at Basra International
Airport.318
Mr Alexander
attended to
represent the UK and was joined by a number of Iraqi ministers,
including
Deputy
Prime Minister Saleh. The work of the Basra Development Forum is
addressed
in Section
10.2.
687.
Mr Prentice
described it as a “hugely successful event” which struck “an
optimistic
note on the
governance and economic agenda to complement the security
handover”
which was
due to take place four days later. He reported to the FCO that the
event had
helped to
bridge the divide between Basra and Baghdad, through the first
visit by Prime
Minister
Maliki since July 2006 and his joint public appearance with
Governor Waili.
688.
Mr Jones
told the Inquiry that it was “no coincidence that the third
Basra
development
forum took place about four days before the PIC
ceremony”.319
He and
his
318
eGram
50733/07 Baghdad to FCO London, 13 December 2007, ‘Iraq: Basra
Development Forum’.
319
Private
hearing, 24 June 2010, page 58.
308