The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
engagement
with the Sadrist movement in recent weeks. He observed that,
together,
these
initiatives represented an opportunity for the Iraqi Government (if
not directly for
the
MNF).
596.
The impact on
the UK was likely to be “increased Iraqi and coalition interest in
our
engagement
with JAM in Basra, which will need a degree of careful management”.
In
particular,
the US and Iraqi desire to regain control of the port from JAM
would “need to
be thought
through in the context of wider political and security
relationships” there.
597.
On 13
November, Lt Gen Houghton briefed the Chiefs of Staff that the JAM
cease-
fire in
Basra continued, “largely as a result of engagement, political
accommodation and
self-limiting
violence”.278
Nonetheless,
five variables had been identified that could put it
at
risk:
•
Prime
Minister Maliki’s continued pressure for General Mohan to act
against
militants
in Basra;
•
Iranian
sponsorship of militant activity;
•
JAM special
groups intent on breaking the Sadrist freeze on military
activity;
•
the
formation of JAM splinter groups undermining mainstream JAM
elements;
and
•
the
“exhaustion of current security accommodations in
Basra”.
598.
It was
reported on 14 November that Mr Alexander had suggested that
Ministers
should be
briefed orally on the negotiations with JAM1 and that Mr Brown
had agreed.279
599.
MOD officials
submitted an update on negotiations with JAM to
Mr Browne’s
Assistant
Private Secretary on 15 November.280
The advice
asked Mr Browne to
approve
(subject to the agreement of the DIRC), by the following day, the
release of five
detainees,
to take place on 17 November.
600.
A revised
handling strategy for the process had been developed and was
“more
forward
leaning about the need for reconciliation between Iraqi groups as a
major part of
solving the
country’s security problem … whilst being prepared to explain the
details of
how this is
being operationalised somewhat more openly”.
601.
Mr Browne
annotated the advice “Agreed” on 16 November.
278
Minutes, 13
November 2007, Chiefs of Staff meeting.
279
Email PS/C,
14 November 2007, ‘[…] – Briefing for Ministers’.
280
Minute
Powell to APS/Secretary of State [MOD], 15 November 2007,
‘Negotiations with JAM: latest
position’
including manuscript comment Browne.
294