9.6 |
27 June 2007 to April 2008
335.
Mr Browne
shared plans for a Prime Ministerial statement on Iraq in early
October,
and said
that it would be very difficult not to refer to PIC. The two agreed
to speak again
following
Gen Petraeus’ visit.
336.
On 10 and 11
September, Gen Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker testified
to
Congress on
security and political progress in Iraq, and on the impact of the
US surge.170
337.
Ambassador
Crocker focused on political, economic and diplomatic
developments
in Iraq. He
assessed that a “secure, stable democratic Iraq at peace with its
neighbours”
was
“attainable” but warned that Iraq was, and would remain, “a
traumatised society”.
In terms
of progress he said:
“In my
judgement, the cumulative trajectory of political, economic, and
diplomatic
developments
in Iraq is upwards, although the line is not steep. The process
will not
be quick,
it will be uneven, punctuated by setbacks as well as achievements,
and it
will
require substantial US resolve and commitment. There will be no
single moment
at which we
can claim victory; any turning point will likely only be recognised
in
retrospect
…
“2007 has
brought improvement. Enormous challenges remain. Iraqis still
struggle
with
fundamental questions about how to share power, accept their
differences and
overcome
their past. The changes to our strategy last January – the surge –
have
helped
change the dynamics in Iraq for the better. Our increased presence
made
besieged
communities feel that they could defeat Al Qaida by working with us
…
We have
given Iraqis the time and space to reflect on what sort of country
they want.
Most Iraqis
genuinely accept Iraq as a multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian society –
it is the
balance of
power that has yet to be sorted out.”
338.
Gen Petraeus
focused on security. He stated that the military objectives of
the
surge were
being met in large measure with coalition and Iraqi forces dealing
“significant
blows” to
Al Qaeda in Iraq and disrupting Shia militia.171
He
highlighted the decline in
civilian
deaths during the period but recognised that the numbers were still
at “troubling
levels”.
Additionally, he described the “tribal rejection of Al Qaida”
spreading out from
Anbar
province as potentially the “most significant development of the
past eight
months”. As
a consequence of the progress made, Gen Petraeus suggested that
it
would be
possible to reduce troop numbers to pre-surge levels in summer 2008
although
he warned
of the dangers of handing over to Iraqi Security Forces too
early.
170
Testimony
to Congress, 10 September 2007, ‘Statement of Ambassador Ryan C
Crocker, United States
Ambassador
to the Republic of Iraq, before a Joint Hearing of the Committee on
Foreign Affairs and the
Committee
on Armed Services September 10, 2007’.
171
Testimony
to Congress Petraeus, 10-11 September 2007, ‘Report to Congress on
the Situation in Iraq’.
247