The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
937.
On 21 June,
Mr Blair had a video conference with President Bush, his final
as
938.
A brief for
the conversation by Mr Blair’s Private Secretary suggested
that
President
Bush might raise concerns about Basra.512
The Private
Secretary wrote:
“You can
reassure him that our current plans would see around 5,000
troops
remaining
in Basra over the Autumn, to focus on training, re‑intervention (if
required)
and
building situational awareness in the South. We will ensure that
transition to
Provincial
Iraqi Control is conditions‑based, and are working hard with (and
on)
Maliki to
ensure that the Government of Iraq plays its part.”
939.
During the
video conference, Mr Blair stressed the importance of a
“visible
fight‑back”
against “militant elements” in Iraq, and of a coherent, politically
driven
reconciliation
process.513
940.
On 21 June,
Mr Asquith reported to London on the focus amongst US staff
in
Iraq on
the need to report to Congress in September.514
As
Ambassador Crocker and
Gen
Petraeus tried to “manage expectations”, in the Embassy and in MNF
HQ “teams
of planners
beaver away” producing metrics. In Mr Asquith’s
view:
“The Iraqis
understand the urgency of what needs to be done. Plenty of
pressure
is being
put on the leadership by their own disenchanted constituents …
But
nonetheless
the Iraqi clock is keeping slower time than Washington’s. And
much
of what is
being asked is difficult to deliver in circumstances where
government
struggles
to be effective and the state of politics is such that decisions
are more
likely to
be postponed than taken.”
941.
On the
political front, Lt Gen Lamb continued to report
progress.515
On 24
June
he wrote
that:
•
agreement
had been reached on the Hydrocarbons Law;
•
vital
groundwork had been laid in reaching agreement on Provincial
Elections;
•
the Sunni
community was increasingly rejecting AQ‑I (in one area in
southern
Baghdad
there had been an 80 percent reduction in IEDs); and
•
progress on
reconciliation and engagement continued, with a new
committee
– made up
of representatives from key Iraqi Ministries and the MNF‑I
and
511
Letter
Banner to Hayes, 22 June 2007, ‘Prime Minister’s VTC with President
Bush, 21 June: Middle
East
issues’.
512
Minute
Gould to Prime Minister, 20 June 2007, ‘Your VTC with President
Bush: 21 June 2007’.
513
Letter
Banner to Hayes, 22 June 2007, ‘Prime Minister’s VTC with President
Bush, 21 June: Middle
East
Issues’.
514
eGram
26691/07 Baghdad to London, 21 June 2007, ‘Iraq: How Baghdad is
handling Congress’s
18
benchmarks’.
515
Minute Lamb
to CDS, 24 June 2007, ‘SBMR‑I Weekly Report (258) 24 June
07’.
176