9.5 |
June 2006 to 27 June 2007
Since the
US surge, sectarian murders had reduced in Baghdad, and security in
Anbar
had been
improved with the help of local forces:
“But the
national monthly average of recorded attacks is 50 percent higher
now than
a year ago.
There is a strong possibility that Shia frustrations will lead to
increased
sectarian
violence.”
841.
Faction‑based
sectarian politics was judged to be hampering the
Government’s
ability to
function effectively:
“Recent
diplomatic reporting indicated that there are plans to improve
government
policy
co‑ordination, but we judge that major improvements in performance
are
unlikely in
the foreseeable future: many departments lack basic
bureaucratic
and
administrative skills. Corruption remains endemic and is not being
tackled
effectively.”
842.
On 17 May, at
the request of the Cabinet Office, the JIC reviewed the threat to
the
UK posed by
international terrorism over the next five years.456
“International
terrorism will remain dominated by Al Qaida (AQ) and related
Sunni
Islamist
extremists. There will be more attacks in the UK and on UK
interests
overseas
…
“AQ’s
senior leaders … can … communicate with affiliated networks in
places like …
Iraq
…
“AQ will
remain flexible in seeking to create or exploit un‑governed spaces
wherever
it can.
Iraq and increasingly Afghanistan will remain key strategic
theatres. If AQ
establishes
a firm base in either country, it will train and radicalise a large
number of
terrorists
and launch attacks regionally and beyond.”
844.
In his weekly
report on 17 May Mr Asquith reported that Prime Minister
Maliki was
facing a
number of political challenges:
•
Threats
that Sunni politicians would pull out of government if their
demands
in the
Constitutional Review Committee (CRC) were not met. The key
issues
were the
redistribution of powers between the centre and
regions/governorates,
fair
distribution of revenues and a revision of Article 140 on Kirkuk,
plus some
movement on
de‑Ba’athification.
•
Divisions
within the Shia UIA bloc, resulting both from the withdrawal of
Fadhila
and
internal divisions within the Dawa party.
456
JIC
Assessment, 17 May 2007, ‘The UK and International Terrorism: The
Next Five Years’.
157