The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
•
The
position of Kirkuk, which had not been resolved and remained a key
issue
845.
Mr Asquith
reported separately that the CRC had not met its 15 May deadline
for
presenting
recommendations to the Council of Representatives.458
He
commented:
“The
constitutional review does provide an opportunity to be a building
block
towards
reconciliation by facilitating agreement on some key issues.
Establishing
federal
paramountcy over oil would increase the value and durability of
any
compromise
reached in the Hydrocarbons Law and would … address some of
the
Sunni
insecurities … But although the CRC may appear to be within reach
of a
tentative
agreement on some of the critical issues, it is not clear that they
have the
endorsement
of the political leadership, in particular the KRG [Kurdish
Regional
Government]
to approve the necessary changes.”
846.
In his weekly
report on 17 May, Maj Gen Shaw reported:
“… across
the three Provinces [in MND(SE)] under Provincial Iraqi Control we
now
lack the
situational awareness to truly determine what is happening on a
day‑to‑day
847.
Maj Gen Shaw
described the impact of continuing indirect fire
attacks:
“The
frequency of attacks does of course have its own grinding effect on
morale.
Our
greatest risk in this respect is if contractors elect to remove
their personnel;
their
departure would leave us without critical life support. At present,
and despite
a number of
individuals choosing to leave in April, contractor support remains
firm.
However,
thinking ahead, should at any stage FCO, DFID or MOD decide to
remove
its Civil
Service Personnel from theatre, the IO [information operations]
message
that this
would send to contractors would need to be factored
in.”
848.
Mr Blair
visited Washington from 17 to 18 May.460
A steering
brief for the visit
explained
that:
“President
Bush is under heavy domestic pressure on Iraq from all sides: not
just
the
Democrats and the American public but also increasingly from within
his own
party. If
significant, demonstrable progress has not been made in Iraq by
September,
the US
Administration will find it hard to sustain support in Congress.
So he is
likely
to welcome
reassurance of continuing British commitment to Iraq and to
sensitive
handling of
transition in Basra and any further troop drawdowns.”
457
eGram
21060/07 Baghdad to FCO London, 17 May 2007, ‘Iraq: Weekly
Assessment’.
458
eGram
21038/07 Baghdad to FCO London, 17 May 2007, ‘Iraq: Constitutional
Review Committee
Report
Delayed’.
459
Minute Shaw
to CJO, 17 May 2007, ‘GOC HQ MND(SE) – Southern Iraq Update – 17
May 2007’.
460
Briefing
[unattributed], [undated], ‘Prime Minister’s Visit to Washington,
17‑18 May 2007: Iraq’.
158