The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“Debates
about political accommodation inevitably prompted the question of
what
strategic
success in Iraq might now look like. Or to use the current mantra,
what
does ‘Iraq
good enough’ actually mean? Given that the US and UK arguably
began
this war
for different strategic reasons, the imperative to agree some
common
ground for
the campaign’s endstate becomes yet more pressing. I sense it is
the
Iraqis who
will determine what ‘good enough’ means for them and it may well be
far
short of
our previous definitions of strategic success. I believe the time
is ripe to
re‑open the
debate with theatre and Washington on this fundamental
issue.”311
600.
Mr Blair’s
Private Secretary put a draft Parliamentary statement on
developments
in Iraq
into Mr Blair’s red box for consideration over the weekend of
17 and
601.
In an
accompanying note, Mr Jonathan Powell advised
Mr Blair:
“This is a
major opportunity to change the way people think about the
situation in
Iraq and
the way forward … you need to give people the sense of an
overall plan
and a way
forward that could lead to success … The key question you have
to
answer is
whether it is inevitable that Iraq will sink into a vicious civil
war that will
only end
with the partition of the country and the success of
Iran.”313
602.
On 18
February, Sir Nigel Sheinwald wrote a minute for Mr Blair
describing two
conversations
with Mr Hadley over that weekend.314
Sir Nigel
explained that President
Bush
supported the timing of the UK’s announcement, but had asked that
Mr Blair make
clear that
“re‑posturing in Basra is the result of success, not an attempt to
hedge against
failure”
and that substantial numbers would remain, with a continued
training role.
603.
In his weekly
report on 18 February, Lt Gen Lamb wrote that Operation
Fardh
al‑Qanoon
was picking up momentum.315
Gen
Petraeus had ensured work on
infrastructure
and basic services had been placed into a new and higher
gearing.
Although
the number of attacks in Baghdad remained broadly undiminished, the
mood
music on
the street suggested small, but positive, indicators of
change.
604.
On 19
February, Mr John Howard, the Australian Prime Minister,
committed to
sending 70
additional military instructors to Iraq.316
311
Minute CGS
to CDS, 19 February 2007, ‘CGS visit to Iraq: 14‑15 Feb
07’.
312
Minute
Banner to Prime Minister, 16 February 2007, ‘Iraq – Statement to
the House’.
313
Minute
Powell to Prime Minister, 16 February 2007, ‘Iraq
Statement’.
314
Minute
Sheinwald to Prime Minister, 18 February 2007, ‘Iraq and
Israel/Palestine: White House views’.
315
Minute Lamb
to CDS, 18 February 2007, ‘SBMR‑I Weekly Report (245) 18 Feb
07’.
316
www.theage.com.au,
19 February 2007, ‘70 non‑combat troops for Iraq’.
112