The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
75.
On 13 July,
Mrs Beckett told Cabinet that responsibility for security in the
province
of Muthanna
had been handed from British to Iraqi forces that
day.56
76.
Maj Gen Cooper
reported that Prime Minister Maliki attended the transfer
ceremony,
at which he
and the Governor had signed an MOU.57
Once
signed:
“We [UK
forces] are now in Operational Overwatch in Muthanna. We will begin
the
long term
monitoring and mentoring of the ISF, continue leadership engagement
and
maintain
situational awareness. I have agreed that we will now have a period
of a
full week
when we will participate in no activities in order to allow the
physical reality
of PIC to
be registered in the province …”
77.
Maj Gen
Cooper’s negotiations with the Governor of Muthanna on the MOU
had
continued
right up to the point of transfer, but the Governor’s concerns had
eventually
been
resolved satisfactorily.
78.
Shortly after
the Muthanna transfer, Lt Gen Fry reported on:
“An
interesting week in which a strategic design for coalition
disengagement has
begun to
emerge at the same time as decisions on the tactical reinforcement
of the
US presence
in Baghdad have been made in response to a deteriorating
security
situation.
The casual observer could be forgiven for being confused
…”58
79.
In a meeting
with President Bush in the margins of a G8 summit in St Petersburg
on
16 July,
Mr Blair said that US plans to surge troops into Baghdad were
“important” and
described
the recent spate of sectarian killings as
“horrific”.59
It was also
important, in his
view, for
Prime Minister Maliki to empower the ISF to tackle
militias.
80.
The question
of whether Iraq was experiencing, or heading towards, civil war
had
been widely
discussed since the departure of the Coalition Provisional
Authority in
June 2004.
81.
Lt Gen Fry
addressed the issue in his 16 July weekly report:
“Is this
civil war? Technically no: the institutions of the state are still
intact,
violence is
localised and there are more displaced people in New Orleans
than
Iraq.60
But a
98 percent increase in civilian casualties in the last three
months
tells its
own story … A general condition exists which is less than
civil war, but
a localised
condition exists in Baghdad, Diyala and parts of Salah ad Din
where
state
institutions have only marginal effect, elements of the security
apparatus are
complicit
in acts of sectarian violence and complex combat operations are
taking
56
Cabinet
Conclusions, 13 July 2006.
57
Minute
Cooper, 13 July 2006, ‘GOC MND (SE) – Southern Iraq Update – 13
July 2006’.
58
Minute Fry
to Stirrup, 16 July 2006, ‘SBMR‑I Weekly Report (218): 16 July
2006’.
59
Letter
Phillipson to Hayes, 16 July 2006, ‘Prime Minister’s meeting with
President Bush, St Petersburg,
16 July
2006: Middle East, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan,
Guantanamo’.
60
In August
2005, New Orleans had been hit by Hurricane Katrina.
16