The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
552.
Mr Blair
met Secretary Rice on 30 January and set out a proposal that the
new
Iraqi
Government should announce a forward programme, including security
transition,
soon after
it had been formed.264
Secretary
Rice was reported to have agreed.
553.
In a video
conference with President Bush on the same day, Mr Blair said
that he
was
concerned about the length of time it was taking to form a new
government.265
554.
Gen Walker
advised DOP(I) on 2 February that, although Gen Casey
remained
content
that the UK should continue to aim for transition in Muthanna and
Maysan
in May,
Gen Casey had raised concerns about the approach during a
recent
555.
In particular,
Gen Casey was worried about “opening up the coalition’s flank
to
Iran”. He
had also questioned whether the proposed “one-step” model for
transition
would set
an unhelpful precedent for the rest of Iraq.
556.
DOP(I)
commissioned the MOD to produce a paper reflecting
cross-departmental
concerns
about the handover “based on a robust assessment of the conditions
in the
two
provinces”.
557.
The following
day, a Private Secretary advised Mr Blair that what was needed
was
for the MOD
to “produce a thorough and rigorous analysis of the conditions in
Muthanna
and Maysan,
setting out why these allow for hand over”.267
558.
Mr Blair
commented that “there must be no sense of our cutting back unless
it is
consistent
with the state of security”.268
559.
On 3 February,
an update for Mr Blair on forming the new government
said:
“Little
progress this week, though the main party leaders are now meeting.
There is
a danger
that, in London at least, the system is too focused on security
transition …
and not
enough on government formation … We keep pressing for new thinking
on
possible
forcing mechanisms.” 269
560.
Mr Blair
signalled with a tick that he agreed a proposal to write to members
of
DOP(I)
expressing concern about the pace of government formation and
explaining it
should be
the main effort in coming weeks.
264
Letter
Sheinwald to Hayes, 31 January 2006, ‘Prime Minister’s meeting with
US Secretary of State,
30 January’.
265
Letter
Quarrey to Siddiq, 31 January 2006, ‘Prime Minister’s VTC with
President Bush: Middle East
Issues’.
266
Minutes, 2
February 2006, DOP(I) meeting.
267
Minute
Quarrey to Prime Minister, 3 February 2006, ‘Iraq
update’.
268
Manuscript
comment Blair on Minute Quarrey to Prime Minister, 3 February 2006,
‘Iraq update’.
269
Minute
Quarrey to Prime Minister, 3 February 2006, ‘Iraq
Update’.
582