The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

499.  On 23 December, Mr Blair sent a Note to President Bush.237 It began:

“We are agreed on the strategy: hands-on; to form a unity government; with a

competent team in charge, especially of MOI and MOD. How?”

500.  In answer to that question, Mr Blair proposed that:

• US and UK political teams should be highly active, which he commented was

“clearly happening”;

• Sunni outreach should be maintained so that the Sunni community knew

that “whatever happens in the election we are the guarantors that they

won’t be cut out”;

• Mr Allawi should be “bound in to a role”;

• neighbouring Arab states should be encouraged to support Iraqi Sunnis;

• the Kurds should be told to engage constructively;

• the US and UK should respond to Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s legitimate

concern about too rapid a withdrawal of the MNF by making clear that “the price

of our staying is a ‘unity Government’”;

• the US and UK should reach out to Muqtada al-Sadr; and

• the UN should play a “real role”, including by endorsing the unity government

approach.

501.  Mr Blair suggested that these actions should be “tracked and reported on” by the

US and UK on a weekly basis. He wrote:

“I came back convinced, more than ever, that this is ‘make or break’, with Iraqis

basically wanting unity but lacking the guidance to get there. We should be

the guides.”

502.  In the final section of his Note, Mr Blair wrote: “Part of the whole business is

about communication.” He considered that in Iraq there was still a “massive level of

misunderstanding” of coalition motives and proposed that as soon as possible after a

new government had been formed “we publish a roadmap or forward vision” as the joint

work of the Iraqis and the coalition, endorsed by the UN.

503.  That should set out a programme for completing Iraqi security capability, a phased

drawdown of the MNF with conditional timelines, a programme of reconstruction and

a set of political goals. Mr Blair concluded: “Of course, it all depends on getting a

good government!”

504.  On the last day of 2005, Mr Patey reported:

“There are a number of contenders for the post of Prime Minister in the new

government … Realistically we expect the battle to come down to a showdown

237  Letter Quarrey to O’Sullivan, 23 December 2005, ‘Iraq’ attaching Note [Blair to Bush], [undated], ‘Iraq’.

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