9.4  |  June 2005 to May 2006

379.  Iraqi leaders should be encouraged to say that Sunni views expressed in

the referendum would be taken into account to “soften the edges” of a positive,

but close, result.

380.  Mr Blair and President Bush spoke by video link on 25 October.170 Mr Straw,

Mr Powell, Sir Nigel Sheinwald and Lt Gen Fry also joined the discussion as did Vice

President Dick Cheney, Secretary Rumsfeld and Secretary Rice, Mr Hadley and

Ambassador Khalilzad. Mr Patey, Gen Casey and others joined from Baghdad.

381.  Two key priorities for the political track were identified:

• splitting off the rejectionists from the Saddamists and the jihadists; and

• getting maximum turnout in the elections so that they led to a broad-based,

centrist government.

382.  Mr Patey cautioned that there were “formidable challenges” to come and that the

UK and US should not take increased Sunni participation in the December elections for

granted. Mr Straw and Secretary Rice advocated pressing Kurdish and Shia leaders to

signal future amendments to the Constitution, to show that the process for amending it

was a real one.

383.  In response to a question from President Bush about the situation in the South,

Mr Patey said that the political process had exposed deep divisions within the Shia

community which had impacted on local government. Local “turf wars” were not being

restrained by central government. Lieutenant General Nicholas Houghton, the SBMR-I,

said that the security situation remained calmer in the South, which might be able to lead

the process of security transition.

384.  Mr Blair agreed with the need to challenge increasing Iranian interference in

Central and South Iraq, which would sharpen if the elections went well. He concluded by

reiterating the point that Sunni outreach would be crucial in the coming weeks and that

this would mean “digging some way into the insurgency”.

385.  The referendum results were formally released on 25 October, confirming that the

Constitution had been passed.171

386.  Nationally, the “Yes” vote was 78.59 percent, with a total turnout of more than

63 percent. There was a majority “Yes” vote in 15 of the 18 governorates (in 12 of these,

the ‘Yes’ vote was more than 90 percent). Although it was rejected by a majority in

the three remaining provinces (Anbar, Salah ad Din and Ninawa), in only two of these

(Anbar and Salah ad Din) was the two-thirds rejection threshold passed.

170  Letter Quarrey to Siddiq, 25 October 2005, ‘Iraq: London/Washington/Baghdad VTC’.

171  eGram 16570/05 Baghdad to FCO London, 26 October 2005, ‘Iraq: Constitution Passes: Final

Referendum Results’.

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