9.4 |
June 2005 to May 2006
with the
Iraqi Army and Special Police. Border guards should be capable of
interdicting
cross-border
support to insurgents and terrorists.
324.
In relation to
the Iraqi Army, standards included having the capability to lead
COIN
operations,
and contain the insurgency in co-ordination with the IPS. Logistics
systems
capable of
sustaining operations, with coalition assistance, should be in
place, as should
mechanisms
to co-ordinate the response to requests for assistance from the IPS
and to
ensure the
security of strategic infrastructure.
325.
In governance
terms, the Provincial Governor should be assessed as capable
of
overseeing
security operations and the Provincial Joint Co-ordination Centre
and Joint
Operations
Room should be in operation, to co-ordinate and monitor. Ministry
structures
and
intelligence capabilities should be capable of supporting
provincial operations, and
systems for
detention, trial and incarceration should be in place.
326.
On coalition
forces, the document specified that they should maintain the
capability
and posture
to reinforce if ISF capabilities were exceeded, and to conduct
counter-
terrorism
operations. They should co-ordinate civil construction activities
and provide
support and
force protection for Transition Teams operating in the
area.
327.
During a visit
to Washington from 10 to 11 October, Sir Nigel Sheinwald reported
to
Mr Hadley
that Mr Blair considered “a surge of UK-US effort” was needed
over the next
few months,
in capitals and in Iraq, starting with regular video
conferences.146
Mr Hadley
“stressed
the need for these to draw up detailed implementation plans and
then ensure
that there
was the necessary follow-through”.
328.
The
Assessments Staff issued an intelligence update on prospects for
the
constitutional
referendum on 11 October.147
They
judged:
“A majority
of Iraqis from across all governorates intend to vote in the
referendum,
according
to polling carried out by the US State Department, although the
poll
showed that
public awareness of the content of the Constitution was
limited.”
329.
The
Assessments Staff reported that the referendum coincided with
Ramadan,
which in
previous years had been marked by increased violence. There
were
suggestions
that some insurgents were trying to disrupt referendum preparations
and
intimidate
voters.
330.
The number of
attacks across the country had risen to more than 100 a day from
a
daily
average of about 75 four weeks earlier. The MNF predicted a surge
of co-ordinated
attacks
closer to polling day, but there was no intelligence about
insurgent tactics on the
day
itself.
146
Letter
Phillipson to Wilson, 12 October 2005, ‘Nigel Sheinwald’s Visit to
Washington, 10/11 October’.
147
Paper
Assessments Staff, 11 October 2005, ‘Iraq’s Constitution:
Referendum Prospects’.
543