9.4 |
June 2005 to May 2006
184.
On 12
September, Dr Reid wrote to Mr Blair with the results of the
most recent
review of
UK forces in Iraq.91
He
explained that:
“…
considerable progress has been made in training the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF)
since the
last roulement in May. Consequently, an overall reduction of about
500
troops will
be possible in … October/November.”
185.
That reduction
would bring force levels down to around 8,000. Dr Reid noted
that
“incident
levels have remained much lower than in other parts of Iraq, but
attacks on UK
forces have
grown in sophistication”. He added: “It should be emphasised that
agreeing
to the
roulement does
not trigger
implementation of our transition plans in MND(SE).”
186.
On the same
day, Dr Reid’s Assistant Private Secretary sought a
specific
assurance
from Gen Walker that the MOD’s planning assumptions for deployment
in
Afghanistan
– as presented to DOP in July 2005 – would be achievable in the
event of a
slower than
expected drawdown of UK forces in Iraq.92
187.
In a bilateral
meeting with President Bush in the margins of a summit
on
14 September,
Mr Blair said that he had read the Red Team Report and that
“some of
its
conclusions were worrying, but at least it set out some clear ideas
on the forward
strategy”.93
He
suggested that the conclusions should be evaluated in London
and
Washington,
and taken forward “where they made sense”.
188.
On 14
September, Mr Paul Fox, Head of the IPU, wrote to
Mr Straw’s Private
Office on
the implications of a Kurdish/Shia “deal” on the
Constitution.94
189.
The deal
stated that the issue of federalism would not be determined until
after
elections
to the National Assembly, which would then decide the rules and
procedures
for forming
federal regions. It stipulated that the National Assembly must
consider
federalism
in the first weeks of its existence.
“This deal
and our assurances have a number of implications. It is a deal with
two
parties
effectively cutting out the third, the Sunnis, and goes some way to
closing the
door to
them on the issue of federalism …
“While the
deal, the assurances and their confidentiality are likely to hold
this side
of
elections in December … what follows could change that. If the
elections lead
to the
fragmentation of the UIA and if Shia groups less enamoured of
federalism
gain a
decent foothold in the assembly, then SCIRI [Supreme Council for
Islamic
91
Letter Reid
to Blair, 12 September 2005, [untitled].
92
Minute
Naworynsky to PSO/CDS, 12 September 2005, ‘Iraq/Afghanistan
commitments’.
93
Letter
Quarrey to Hayes, 14 September 2005, ‘US Millennium Review Summit;
bilateral with
President Bush’.
94
Minute Fox
to Private Secretary [FCO], 14 September 2005, ‘Iraq’s
Constitution: UK Assurances on a
Kurdish/Shia
deal’.
519