The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
Revolution
in Iraq] might be tempted to go public with these assurances
to
strengthen
their hand. This would have a negative impact on the Sunnis but
they
would be in
a stronger political position and therefore the impact would be
less than
it might
otherwise have been. We would then make clear that we were not
bound by
these
assurances, given the expressed will of the National Assembly
chosen in free
and fair
elections. We would have to contend with the unhappiness of the UIA
but
they would
have been warned of the consequences of such an
action.”
On 14
September, the leader of Al Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
declared an
“all‑out
war” on Shia Muslims in Iraq in response to a US–Iraqi offensive on
the town of
On 18
September, Lt Gen Brims’ weekly report to Gen Walker recorded the
impact of this
A series of
12 car bombs in Baghdad had increased the number of attacks there
by
almost
half. The weekly casualty numbers rose by 122 percent, and 479 of
the 782 people
killed were
civilians. Although al-Zarqawi claimed the attacks in Baghdad, Lt
Gen Brims
observed
“we should not under-estimate the extent of involvement of local
Iraqi insurgents
in planning
and executing many of the attacks”.
191.
On 15
September, the JIC produced an Assessment covering the draft
Constitution
and Sunni
violence, at the request of the ISOG.97
Its Key
Judgements included:
“I. Many
leading Sunni figures are unhappy with aspects of the draft
Constitution …
At the
grass-roots many Sunnis wish to vote: most who do are likely to
reject the
draft.
“II. It is
unlikely that the Sunnis can mobilise a two-thirds majority against
the draft in
the
requisite three provinces …
“III.
Actions of the insurgents will be critical to the size of the Sunni
vote. The hard
core of the
insurgents … see the political process as a threat and will try to
disrupt
the
referendum. Their continued violence will inhibit the turnout by
Sunnis; less so by
Shia.”
192.
On 16
September, the IPU advised Mr Straw and Sir Michael Jay, FCO
Permanent
Under
Secretary, that the frequency and sophistication of attacks in
Basra was
increasing
and the British Embassy Office Basra was locked
down.98
95
Al Jazeera
News, 14
September 2005, Al-Zarqawi
declares war on Iraqi Shia.
96
Minute
Brims to Walker, 18 September 2005, ‘SBMR-I Weekly Report (179) 18
September 05’.
97
JIC
Assessment, 15 September 2005, ‘Iraq: the Draft Constitution and
Sunni Violence’.
98
Minute
Jeffrey to PS [FCO], 16 September 2005, ‘Basra Security
Situation’.
520