The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“You ask
how alarmed you should be about Iraq. Of course we should
be
concerned –
about the continuing high level of violence; lack of grip of
the
ITG; slow pace
of reconstruction etc. It is difficult to see these things
being
remedied quickly.
“At the
same time we need to make a hard-headed calculation: are we headed
for
strategic
failure? I do not
think we
are, principally because the political process
remains on
track and, so far, the insurgents have not succeeded in fomenting
any
widespread
sectarian conflict. Those are the bottom line strategic
risks.”
113.
Sir Nigel
suggested that the objective over the next six months should
be:
“… to build
the right political and security platform so that:
•
the elected
Iraqi Government after the December elections can really
take
charge and
govern the country; and
•
the MNF can
begin a substantial withdrawal next year, and leave the
country
in the
hands of the ISF, without precipitating a civil war. At present
there is no
doubt that
the presence of the MNF contains the sectarian
violence.”
114.
Achieving the
objective required “a comprehensive
political strategy”.
Sir Nigel
suggested
that the FCO paper discussed at DOP(I) contained all the
necessary
elements of
such a strategy. One of the key requirements was:
“A
delivery
mechanism: close
co-ordination between the UK and US Ambassadors
and
military in Baghdad; Jack [Straw] and Condi [Rice] in charge of the
political
process;
John [Reid] and Rumsfeld engaged on the security
strategy.”
115.
Attached to
Sir Nigel’s advice was a draft note for Mr Blair to send to
President
Bush,
prepared by Mr Blair’s Private Secretary.54
It
emphasised “if we are going
to achieve
decisive effect within the necessary timescale, we need clearer
lines of
responsibility
for managing delivery”.
116.
Mr Blair
wrote in manuscript on Sir Nigel’s advice: “I agree strongly with
your
analysis.
My concern is delivering the strategy.”55
54
Minute
Sheinwald to Prime Minister, 22 July 2005, ‘Iraq: A Comprehensive
Strategy’ attaching
‘Note for
President
Bush, Iraq: A Comprehensive Political Strategy’.
55
Manuscript
comment Blair to Sheinwald on Minute
Sheinwald to Prime Minister, 22 July 2005,
‘Iraq: A Comprehensive
Strategy’.
508