The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
79.
Mr Blair
and Mr Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, held an
off-the-record seminar
on Iraq
with six academics on 19 November.
80.
Mr Rycroft
advised Mr Blair that No.10 had issued a set of eight
questions as an
agenda for
the seminar, including:
“Post-Saddam,
how quickly would the Iraqi economy revive? Who would
control
81.
Mr Rycroft
annotated that question in his advice to
Mr Blair:
“BP and
others are fretting that they will lose out in the carve-up of
contracts after
any
military action, as the UK did after the Gulf war … We don’t need
to get into the
detail of
this, but we need to know what the main economic constraints would
be
in
rebuilding Iraq and how economic issues would drive the model of
governance
chosen.”
82.
The concerns
of UK oil companies and their discussions with the UK
Government
are
described later in this Section.
83.
Not all the
questions posed by No.10 were addressed at the
seminar.37
Mr Rycroft’s
record of
the seminar reported the view that changing Iraq substantively
would mean
tackling
the political economy of oil, which led to a highly centralised
bureaucracy and
the power
of patronage.
84.
Mr Arnab
Banerji, an adviser in No.10, sent Mr Blair a detailed
assessment of the
economic
impact on the UK of war in Iraq on 19 December.38
Mr Banerji
concluded:
“A short
successful war with Iraq is likely to pose little strain on the UK
economy.
Following
such a conflict a combination of lower oil prices and increased
business
confidence
should provide a boost to the world economy. This in turn would
feed into
higher UK
growth in both 2003 and 2004.
“An
extended or inconclusive conflict would have negative consequences
for the
world
economy and damage the UK. If oil prices remain in the US$30 –
US$45 [per
barrel]
range for a year then UK growth rates are expected to be about 1.0
percent
lower than
anticipated for both 2003 and 2004.”
That price
range compared with a UK forecast of US$20 to US$25 per barrel by
the end
of
2003.
36
Minute
Rycroft to Prime Minister, 18 November 2002, ‘Iraq: Seminar with
Academics, Tuesday’.
37
Letter
Rycroft to Sinclair, 20 November 2002, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s
Seminar with Academics,
19 November’.
38
Minute
Banerji to Prime Minister, 19 December 2002, ‘Economic Impact on UK
of War with Iraq’.
386