The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
778.
On 25
February, the JIC assessed that, although the rate of attacks
against
Coalition
Forces had levelled off, February 2004 was the worst month for
casualties
since the
fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime.428
Attacks
using Improvised Explosive
Devices
(IEDs) and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had become more
sophisticated.
779.
More than 200
people were killed in suicide attacks in February, nearly all of
them
Iraqis. The
JIC assessed that most of the suicide attacks may have been carried
out by
Islamist
extremists, including groups linked to Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi.
780.
Attacks on
Iraq’s police and security forces were increasing, with
vehicle-borne
bombs
causing most casualties. In attacks on a police station and army
recruiting centre
almost 100
Iraqis had been killed.
781.
A major attack
in Erbil on the main Kurdish parties left 101 dead.429
782.
In early
February there had been an unsuccessful attempt to
assassinate
Grand Ayatollah
al-Sistani.430
The JIC
judged that a successful attack would be
“very de-stabilising”.
783.
Major General
Andrew Stewart, GOC MND(SE) from December 2003 to
July 2004,
told the
Inquiry that he considered that the increase in violence and
intimidation in
southern
Iraq in February and March could be attributed to the Shia
political parties
losing
influence over the people and stirring up militias.431
784.
There were
also continuing concerns about Al Qaida. In late February the
JIC
assessed
that:
“Islamist
extremists continue to travel to Iraq. Some intelligence suggests
that
Islamist
extremists have been responsible for most of the recent suicide
attacks over
the last
months. Senior Al Qaida associate al-Zarqawi is playing a prominent
role.
But the
exact relationship between al-Zarqawi, Al Qaida, Ansar al Islam and
other
apparently
unaffiliated Islamist groups in Iraq is unclear … In a
letter,432
now
made
public by
the CPA, to senior Al Qaida commander Abd al Hadi al-Iraqi,
al-Zarqawi
admits that
numbers are small and that Iraq is proving to be a difficult
environment
to operate
in … Suicide attacks, although relatively small in number, are
having a
disproportionate
impact …
“In his
letter al-Zarqawi claims to have been responsible for 25 suicide
operations.
Al-Zarqawi
also lists Americans, Kurds, Iraqi troops, police and agents, and
the
Shia as his
main targets. In particular, he sees attacking the Shia as a means
of
fomenting
civil war, and thereby ensnaring the Coalition in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi
offers
428
JIC
Assessment, 25 February 2004, ‘Iraq Security’.
429 Annotated
Agenda, 12 February 2004, Ad Hoc Group on Iraq Rehabilitation
meeting.
430
JIC
Assessment, 25 February 2004, ‘Iraq Security’.
431
Public
hearing, 9 December 2009, pages 66-67.
432
Global
Security, February
2004, Text from
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi letter.
334