9.2  |  23 May 2003 to June 2004

708.  On 28 January, the JIC assessed the prospects for political transition.387 It judged:

“There are as yet no emerging political classes or individuals around which

a national secular government might form under a national leader. In these

circumstances, religious, regional and tribal figures may be more influential.

Their interests are likely to clash.”

709.  The Assessment continued:

“Although Coalition Forces have enjoyed some success against Islamist extremists

recently, there are signs that senior Al Qaida (AQ) associate al-Zarqawi is now playing

a significant role in co-ordinating mujahedin, and possibly AQ groups in Iraq …

“We judge that the lack of security remains a major threat to progress. Unless

tackled effectively, many of those who want to participate in the political process will

be deterred … unless they have physical protection, which will benefit organisations

with private militias …

…

“The larger political and religious groups in Iraq operate their own militias. These

groups have become accepted as local law-enforcement agencies in some areas,

and the transition process will be vulnerable to their influence.

…

“Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani is pre-eminent among the moderate Shia clergy. He is

emphatic that he does not seek a personal political role, but he … insist[s] on the

Iraqi population having a democratic voice in the political process …

“Sistani’s influence is considerable, and extends to the Arab Sunni community …

Any pronouncement he makes on political matters is likely to have an impact,

possibly resulting in loss of Shia support or their withdrawal from the process …

In Basra, Sistani’s representative is inclined towards peaceful co-existence with the

Coalition, but adheres strongly to Sistani’s line on the political process and recently

instigated a demonstration by some 60,000 people …

“Muqtada al-Sadr poses a threat to stability, particularly in Najaf, Karbala, and

Baghdad … We judge that his support will remain limited, but that he remains

capable of provoking localised disorder.”

387  JIC Assessment, 28 January 2004, ‘Iraq: Prospects for Political Transition’.

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