The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

701.  On 26 January, Sir Hilary sent a valedictory telegram383 from Basra.384 In it he

reflected on progress since the invasion:

“History may judge the initial stages harshly. From my immediate and close

perspective … it is difficult not to take a similar view. But I am also optimistic

that … the underlying objective … of a peaceful, prosperous democratic

(of a sort) and un-threatening Iraq, is achievable … although some serious obstacles

remain in the way.”

702.  Sir Hilary’s conclusion was that:

“… the balance of probability is positive. In the South, at least, there has been

progress on each of the Prime Minister’s priorities and it is hard to recall just how

bleak things looked last summer.”

703.  On the political process, Sir Hilary observed that:

“The political wrestling is largely being conducted in Baghdad, London and

Washington. We in the Provinces, remote from the Governing Council and its

appointed ministers, can only facilitate political debate, observe, and report that the

complexities of the caucus process for indirect elections has found no favour …

“The challenges remain enormous. Some movement must be made towards Sistani

while avoiding wholesale erosion of the CPA/GC position and a political vacuum.”

704.  Sir Hilary’s observations on deployment of civilian resources are described in

Section 15.1, and on progress of reconstruction in Section 10.1.

705.  Mr Blair told the Inquiry that, although there was “anxiety and concern occasionally

flagged up very strongly” in Sir Hilary’s telegrams, when he left in 2004 Sir Hilary was

“on balance optimistic, not pessimistic”.385

706.  Sir Hilary wrote to the Inquiry, in response to Mr Blair’s evidence, to explain that his

valedictory remarks should be viewed in the context of his contemporary proposals for a

strategy to maintain the momentum of reconstruction after the CPA had dissolved.386

707.  Sir Hilary observed:

“In the event my strategy was not accepted.”

383  Valedictory telegrams are an FCO tradition. They mark the sender’s departure from post, and generally

include a summary of his/her reflections on their tenure.

384  Telegram 10 Basra to FCO London, 26 January 2004, ‘Basra Valedictory’.

385  Public hearing, 21 January 2011, page 135.

386  Statement Synnott, 24 January 2011.

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