9.2 | 23 May 2003 to June 2004

550. On 18 November, Sir Jeremy Greenstock attended a meeting of the Iraq Strategy

Group, chaired by Sir Nigel Sheinwald.307

551. Among the “main private messages” that Sir Jeremy believed that Mr Blair should

raise with President Bush was the need for a “comprehensive and fully integrated

approach [to security] including improved intelligence co-ordination, greater Iraqiisation

of security forces, bringing in more ex-Ba’athists and political outreach to the Sunnis”.

552. On 19 November, in a review of Al Qaida’s global operations, the JIC reported:

“There have been some indications of senior Al Qaida leaders … aspiring to play

a role in Iraq and enabling others to do so. The ‘Iraq jihad’ has been a focus for

recent Al Qaida propaganda. We do not know for certain how much direct influence

Al Qaida leaders have over activity, or how far ‘core’ Al Qaida terrorists have been

involved in operations there. But groups affiliated with it (such as Ansar al Islam

and al-Zarqawi’s network) are planning and carrying out operations and may

have been responsible for some of the major attacks. The Iraq jihad is also likely

to produce a new generation of battle hardened fighters prepared to use their

expertise elsewhere.”308

553. In mid-November, the Defence Intelligence Service (DIS) created an Iraq Security

Task Force to increase its analytical effort “into the nature of the insurgency in Iraq”.309

The group was intended to work closely with PJHQ and the intelligence agencies to

“identify the insurgents and their organisation, strategy, tactics, methods and logistics”.

554. Lt Gen Andrew Ridgway, the Chief of Defence Intelligence, cautioned that:

“… this effort does not come without a price. I will be forced to reduce effort

elsewhere … Assessment of non-insurgent related activity in Iraq will be reduced

in the short term as Gulf branch is back-filled with analysts less familiar with

the region.”

555. On 20 November, Mr Blair and President Bush made a joint statement in which

they said:

“We reaffirm the resolve of our two countries, with many friends and allies, to

complete the process of bringing freedom, security and peace to Iraq. We warmly

welcome the Iraqi Governing Council’s announcement of a timetable for the creation

of a sovereign Iraqi Transitional Administration by the end of June 2004 …”310

556. The statement went on to say that the GC’s announcement was consistent with

their long-stated aim of handing power to Iraqi hands as quickly as possible.

307 Minute Dodd to Sheinwald, 18 November 2003, ‘Iraq: Strategy Group’.

308 JIC Assessment, 19 November 2003, ‘International Terrorism: Al Qaida Stocktake’.

309 Minute CDI to PS/Policy Director, 19 November 2003, ‘DIS’ Iraq Security Task Force – Implications’.

310 Statement Bush and Blair, 20 November 2003, ‘Declaration on Iraq’.

297