The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
522.
Sir Nigel told
Mr Blair that:
“… [Lt Gen]
Sanchez is planning an operation in Fallujah – the tribal chiefs
have
been given
a two week deadline to control the terrorists or face a heavy
US
response.
This could turn ugly … but it would be wrong to question the need
to get
the
initiative back.”
523.
Sir Nigel
reported that key GC members were beginning to support the idea of
a
transitional
government. But his main conclusion was:
“… that we
are unlikely by spring 2004 to have made the advances
necessary,
particularly
on security, for a wholesale transfer to a provisional
government.”
524.
Instead, he
and Sir Jeremy Greenstock set out an alternative political
timetable
which they
thought might emerge:
•
strengthening
the GC so it could pass a basic Constitutional Law;
•
electing an
Assembly to appoint a transitional government;
•
transferring
sovereignty to the transitional government in September
2004;
•
holding a
census and elections for a Constitutional Assembly;
and
•
full
election to a sovereign Iraqi Government in 2006.
525.
Mr Blair
indicated with a tick that he was content with this
timetable.
526.
Sir Nigel
wrote that Iraq’s:
“…
political, social and economic landmarks were swept away by the
dictatorship.
Our
position rests largely on intangible Iraqi perceptions of
credibility and consent.
Most Iraqis
are at best confused: they don’t want Saddam back, but want
the
Occupation
to end.”
527.
Mr Blair
commented against that text “Is this right?”
528.
Sir Nigel
continued:
“This is an
immense task: we have, at last, the right policies in place; but
there is a
sense of a
race against time, with Iraqiisation benefits not able to kick in
properly
until the
spring, and continuing doubt about the CPA’s ability to get the
practical
jobs done.”
529.
Sir Jeremy
Greenstock reported that the key GC members were dismissive
of
Ambassador
Bremer’s time constraints, arguing that direct elections to a
Constitutional
Convention
were necessary, and that resolution 1511 allowed for a
transitional
government
in the meantime.292
292
Telegram
257 IraqRep to FCO London, 9 November 2003, ‘Iraq: Sheinwald
Visit’.
292