The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
(education,
agriculture, 13th month payment) to ensure a quiet
Ramadan.
The creation
of Local Security Forces (described by MND(SE) Chief of Staff
as
‘Neighbourhood
Watch with Attitude’), which is now being tried in a pilot
scheme,
should
harness selected men under 19 Brigade control and, crucially,
pre-empt the
otherwise
inevitable formation of uncontrolled militias if there were to be
security
crises in
the future.”238
409.
On 24
September, Sir Jeremy Greenstock warned:
“… the UK
has not yet put the intensity of resources into the civilian side
of our
operation,
in terms of both personnel and project money, to convince the
Americans
that our
analysis … has to be listened to. If we watch our housekeeping too
carefully
in this
respect, we may be forced down the wrong road … I shall have to
come back
410.
On 25
September, the JIC produced its Assessment of the overall security
situation
in
Iraq.240
It said
that:
“Since the
end of August there has been an increase in the number of
attacks
against
Coalition Forces in Iraq … In the large majority of cases we cannot
attribute
attacks to
specific groups. Most of the attacks are against US forces in the
centre
and north
of the country and casualties continue to be taken at a steady
rate. We
have no
accurate figures for civilian casualties. The tactics of the armed
opposition
groups
continue to evolve, including the increased use of more
sophisticated IEDs
and more
elaborate attacks … Intimidation of Iraqis working [for] or seen to
be
supporting
the Coalition, criminal activity, and attacks against the police,
have all
continued …
There has been limited violence between Sunni and Shia
communities
in the
aftermath of the al-Hakim murder and any further attacks against
the Shia
leadership
[are] likely to lead to further inter-communal
violence.
“Counter to
the overall trend, the number of attacks against CF [Coalition
Forces]
in …
MND(SE) has reduced since mid-August and had reached its lowest
level
since June.
Of the total of 1,025 incidents [across Iraq, in the period 10 June
to
9 September]
only 22 took place in the UK area.”
411.
On Shia
attitudes, the JIC assessed that:
“Some Shia
groups have demanded greater latitude to provide their own
security
and this
has resulted in the emergence of militias supporting Shia parties,
some with
a
capability to gather intelligence, conduct patrolling and mount
vehicle check points
… However
the militias are also carrying out illegal arrests, interrogations,
and in
some cases
murder … Any Coalition attempts to disarm the Shia militia groups
could
be a
flashpoint for trouble.”
238
Telegram 27
Basra to FCO London, 22 September 2003, ‘South Iraq: Basra
City’.
239
Teleletter
Greenstock to Sheinwald, 24 September 2003,
[untitled].
240
JIC
Assessment, 25 September 2003, ‘Iraq Security’.
276