9.2 | 23 May 2003 to June 2004

315. In relation to the political process, the Cabinet Office note said:

• the Governing Council had appointed a preparatory Constitutional Committee,

which should mean a Constitutional Convention by the autumn;

• national elections were possible in summer 2004, followed by the establishment

of a sovereign Iraqi Government in the autumn;

• the CPA was slowly transferring power to the GC;

• the nine-member Presidency of the GC was unwieldy and politically

inexperienced; and

• decisions, including on the appointment of interim ministers, were being taken

on ethnic and sectarian lines and were slow to emerge.

316. The Cabinet Office note said that the UK should:

• persuade the GC to choose ministers quickly, establish the Constitutional

Convention and agree and announce a clear political timetable in consultation

with the CPA;

• work on a new resolution; and

• persuade Mr Annan to choose a suitable successor to Mr Vieira de Mello.

317. In relation to security, the Cabinet Office note recorded that:

“The security situation in central and southern Iraq had worsened since July. It is

likely to deterioriate into the autumn. Numbers of attacks in and around Baghdad

remain broadly the same, but the sophistication has increased.”

318. The recommended next steps were to:

• broaden and increase Coalition Forces in Iraq, necessitating a new resolution;

• accelerate training of Iraqi Security Forces;

• gather more intelligence on Islamic groups to improve targeting; and

• persuade the UN to adopt “a more realistic approach” to security.

319. In his minute Sir Nigel Sheinwald gave Mr Blair his view of immediate priorities for

Iraq.193 They were:

• increasing UK resources, both military and civilian;

• improving utilities, especially electricity generation in the South;

• accelerating the arrival of police trainers;

• improving CPA media handling;

• a new UN Security Council resolution “to spread the military and reconstruction

load”;

193 Minute Sheinwald to Prime Minister, 29 August 2003, ‘Iraq’ including manuscript comment Blair.

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