The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
225.
The Assessment
said that:
“There has
been jubilation at the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. But we
judge
that this
is likely to dissipate quickly. Most of the Iraqi population is
ambivalent about
the role of
the Coalition and uncertain about the future. Initial reporting
shows that
concerns
arise quickly about the break-down of law and order and the need
for
food and
water. Some pre-war reports suggested that the Iraqi population has
high,
perhaps
exaggerated, hopes that the Coalition will rapidly improve their
lives by
improving
their access to clean drinking water, electricity and sanitation.
However,
even
without any war damage, there are severe shortfalls in the
infrastructure of
these
sectors, and in healthcare. Looting has made matters
worse.
“Initial
Iraqi responses to the Coalition will be on a local basis. There is
no sign yet of
widespread
popular support for opposition to the Coalition. We judge that, at
least in
the short
term, the details of the post-Saddam political process will be less
important
for many
Iraqis than a restoration of internal security and the start of
reconstruction.
But the
Iraqi population will blame the Coalition if progress is slow.
Resentment of
the
Coalition also could grow quickly if it is seen to be ineffective,
either politically or
militarily.
Such resentment could lead to violence. But we judge that at
present there
is no Iraqi
social or political structure which could co-ordinate
it.”
226.
In the same
document the JIC updated its pre-invasion assessment of the
role
of Al
Qaida (AQ) within Iraq:
“…
intelligence shows that AQ-associated extremists are now in
Baghdad, but
we remain
uncertain as to their role. We judge that AQ’s aspirations to
conduct
anti‑western
attacks remain undiminished.”
227.
In its final
report on 18 April the Red Team wrote that:
“The
initial surge of lawlessness seen since the fall of the major Iraqi
cities is likely
to be a
short-term phenomenon. The re-engagement of most of the former
regime
police
force personnel in the immediate future will, along with the use of
Coalition
troops,
re-establish law and order on the streets.”121
228.
The Red Team
also wrote that there was “an immediate requirement to
re-institute
the rule of
law”.
229.
A JIC
Assessment of 30 April addressed the post-war threat from
international
terrorism.122
It said
that:
“Coalition
action has deprived Al Qaida and its associates of safe haven in
Northern
Iraq … The
Northern Iraq-based Al Qaida associate group Ansar al Islam has
been
121
Minute
PS/CDI to APS2/SofS [MOD], 18 April 2003, ‘Iraq Red Team – the
strands of the rope’ attaching
Paper ‘Iraq
Red Team: the strands of the rope’.
122
JIC
Assessment, 30 April 2003, ‘Iraq: the Initial Landscape
Post-Saddam’.
168