8 | The
invasion
635.
Lt Gen Reith
recommended that there were “logistic advantages” in
including
Dhi Qar as
the third province if the UK AOR were expanded. Wasit and
Muthanna
were the
likely options for the fourth. Muthanna was “mostly desert …
undemanding
and
potentially unrewarding, although it includes the area of a
potential oilfield”. It was
the
“simpler task, requiring less troops”. Wasit was “more demanding,
requires more
troops, but
offers a significant role”. Lt Gen Reith advised that: “On the
basis of logistic
complexity
and concern over long term consent levels, Diyala is the only
province of the
six that
the UK should actively seek to avoid.”
636.
The SOR
included one-page summaries of conditions in each of the six
provinces,
including
assessments of “residual threats” and level of
consent:
•
Wasit. “A
medium-term threat from small groups of irregulars will continue
to
exist
whilst they have any residual support from the local civilian
population.
As the
restructuring work post-war gains momentum and law and order
and
governmental
institutes begin to function again, expect this threat to diminish
…
Low-High
levels of consent. Revenge and
retribution between communities
potentially
high; large Sunni population.”
•
Basra.
“Iranian-backed/influenced groups will continue to try to exert
influence in
the region;
this is expected to be a short- to medium-term threat. The extent
of
threat from
PMF [Popular Mobilisation Forces] will be influenced by the
tolerance
of the
community; as confidence in the Coalition’s presence builds this
threat is
expected to
diminish … High level
of consent. Strong
economy with potential
for rapid
growth. Anti-regime. Border province – Iranian
influence.”
•
Maysan.
“Aside from small groups of irregulars, expect a relatively low
level of
residual
threat in this governorate. As for other areas, the ability of
these groups
to continue
to influence and to blend in with the civilian population will
diminish
as the
post-war reconstruction gathers momentum … Medium-High
levels of
consent.
Tensions between MEK [Mujahideen e Khalq] and local
population
high.
Border province – Iranian influence. Tribes are
anti-regime.”
•
Dhi Qar.
“Aside from small groups of irregulars, we expect a relatively low
level
of residual
threat in this governorate. As for other areas, the ability of
these
groups to
continue to influence and to blend in with the civilian population
will
diminish as
the post-war reconstruction gathers momentum … Medium‑High
levels of
consent. Poor region.
Tribal insurrection since 1991. Tensions
between MEK
and local population high.”
•
Muthanna. “A
largely benign area of Iraq which is sparsely populated
and
bordered by
Saudi Arabia. There is a possibility that the long-running
border
dispute
with the Saudis could re-emerge in the aftermath of the war, but
this is
unlikely to
pose a direct threat to Coalition activities. That aside, we assess
that
there is no
discernible threat, residual or otherwise to Coalition Forces
… High
levels of
consent.”
113