The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
364.
Mr Hoon
suggested that Basra could be a model for the best approach. It was
now
isolated,
with the main access road from the north controlled by Coalition
Forces. Inside
the city,
the regime militia’s control by terror was being eroded.
Intelligence suggested
that the
local people’s mood was changing as confidence grew that the
Coalition would
see the job
through. Aggressive patrolling would continue to send a message
about the
Coalition’s
commitment.
365.
Mr Blair
stated that the third phase would be the collapse of the
regime.
The country
had been in the grip of a security apparatus which continued to
fight for
the regime.
It appeared that the population at large did not support the
regime, but
they lacked
the confidence to rise up until they could be sure that the change
would be
permanent.
Mr Blair could not forecast how long it would take for the
regime to collapse,
but only
one outcome was possible. Good progress was being made
militarily.
366.
In discussion,
concerns were expressed about the scale of casualties likely
to
result from
urban fighting in Baghdad. Continued pressure for regime collapse
was
preferable.
Protection of the Shia holy sites at Karbala and Najaf was a
priority for the
Coalition.
The UK was publicising reports that the regime intended to damage
them and
attribute
that to the Coalition. Iraqi troops were using schools and
hospitals as military
positions
and, in the South, an ammunition store had been found inside a
school.
367.
Mr Blair
concluded that Cabinet very much appreciated the way UK forces
had
conducted
themselves. Progress was being made on the military, humanitarian
and
political
fronts. The situation was better than could have been expected at
that stage.
Progress on
the ground would nevertheless be uneven and the Government
would
need to be
steady in its resolve. The
ultimate judgement on the conflict would be based
on whether
Iraq was a better place for its people and if the international
community
regained
its unity of purpose.
368.
Mr Hoon’s
statement to the House of Commons conveyed the message
that
steady
progress was being made.
369.
In a statement
to the House of Commons on 3 April, Mr Hoon said:
“Our
strategic grip on Iraq is tightening. In the South, British forces
continue
to operate
in the al-Faw Peninsula, the southern oilfields and the Basra
area.
The 7 Armoured
Brigade is preventing Iraqi forces in Basra from hindering
the
main
advance, while establishing corridors for the safe movement of
civilians and
humanitarian
aid …
“In the
area of Abu Al Khasib, in the south-east outskirts of Basra, 3
Commando
Brigade
have engaged substantial Iraqi forces, capturing significant
numbers of
enemy
forces, including senior Iraqi officers … Key suburbs of Basra have
now been
taken. We
will go further into the city at a time of our own choosing
…
62