The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

346. Mr Scarlett informed the Ad Hoc Meeting on Iraq on 2 April that desertions and

internecine differences between those opposing the Coalition were on the increase

in Basra.189

347. Adm Boyce reported that Iraqi reinforcement of Basra from the north had been

stopped. Photography had been commissioned of Iraqi forces taking cover in and

around the Shia holy sites.

348. Concluding the discussion, Mr Blair said that it remained to be seen whether

Republican Guard divisions outside Baghdad would fall back into the city or remain

outside. UK forces continued to chip away at Basra, where resistance by Iraqi regulars

was diminishing. More generally, the main judgement to be made at the end of the

conflict would be whether life was better for the Iraqis. This was what would count for

Arab opinion in particular. Our message to the Iraqi people needed to be repeated so

that there was no doubt about our intentions. Mr Blair repeated that the full co-operation

of departments was essential in gearing up the communications effort.

349. Mr Scarlett sent Sir David Manning reports on the situation in Basra and on

Iraq’s irregular forces on 2 April.

350. The DIS stated that there were indications that the “aggressive posture” of

UK forces was undermining the confidence of regime figures in Basra; and that

one member of the Iraqi Army had stated that it would attack regime forces once

the Coalition moved to take Basra.

351. Mr Scarlett predicted that fighting might continue after the fall of the Iraqi

regime and that only the substantial, vigorous and visible presence of Coalition

troops could guarantee control.

352. In response to a request from Sir David Manning for regular updates on Basra,

Mr Scarlett sent No.10 a DIS report, reviewed and agreed by the Assessments Staff,

on 2 April.190

353. The DIS report stated:

“• Coalition airstrikes are degrading Ba’ath and security forces grip on the city.

The destruction of the Ba’ath headquarters has driven security forces to set up

in schools, sports clubs and municipal facilities. Continued airstrikes, combined

with UK fighting patrols into the city, are forcing the security forces to disperse …

Reinforcements arrive along Highway 6 – there appears to be large numbers of

Fedayeen and possibly Republican Guard travelling in civilian clothes … The

Coalition has left one bridge open in the north and the regime is exploiting this.

189 Minutes, 2 April 2003, Ad Hoc Meeting on Iraq.

190 Minute Scarlett to Manning, 2 April 2003, ‘Situation in Basra’ attaching Report DIS, 1 April 2003,

‘Situation in Basra as at 01 April 2003’.

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