The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
240.
The minute
reported that the majority of Basra’s population were Shia
Muslims,
and that
there was “a potential for the population to rise up against the
regime”.
However:
“We have
always recognised that the local population would be wary of rising
in this
way, given
the experience of 1991.”
241.
The morale of
the estimated 6,000 regular forces in Basra was assessed as
“low”,
the morale
of the 2,000 irregulars was not; as committed supporters of the
regime, they
had
“everything to lose”. Against that background:
“… GOC 1
(UK) Div’s [Maj Gen Brims’] intent … has been to defeat Iraqi
forces in
the
vicinity of Basra and his intent is to continue in this vein; to
isolate Iraqi irregular
forces from
the civilian population …
“This
approach supports, and reflects, Gen McKiernans’ [sic] overall
intent. While
he doesn’t
underestimate the importance of Basra, his assessment is that the
fall
of Baghdad
guarantees the fall of Basra, but that the reverse is not
likely.
“Fighting
in an urban environment is complex, and GOC 1 (UK) Div does not
have
the forces
at his disposal to conduct a successful, opposed entry into Basra
…
“Other than
media reporting, there is no evidence that this approach is
contributing
to a
humanitarian catastrophe in Basra …”
242.
The Ad Hoc
Meeting on Iraq and Cabinet on 27 March were both chaired
by
Mr John
Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, in Mr Blair’s absence at
Camp David.148
243.
Mr Scarlett
informed the Ad Hoc meeting of Iraqi perceptions that the regime’s
grip
on the
population still held.
244.
Adm Boyce
reported that the discovery of mines in the waterway to Umm
Qasr
would delay
the arrival of ships bringing humanitarian relief
supplies.
245.
Ms Clare
Short, the International Development Secretary, reported that
the
humanitarian
situation in Basra was improving because of the efforts of the
International
Committee
of the Red Cross (ICRC). Damage to the high voltage electricity
supply by
the
Coalition had affected the water system. There were lessons to be
learned.
246.
At the meeting
on 27 March, Cabinet paid tribute to the 22 servicemen who
had
lost their
lives in the conflict.149
247.
Mr Hoon
informed his colleagues that, against the objectives which had been
set
out in
Parliament, the Coalition had overcome the resistance of Iraqi
Security Forces in
the South:
the al-Faw Peninsula, the port of Umm Qasr and the southern
oilfields were
148
Minutes, 27
March 2003, Ad Hoc Meeting on Iraq.
149
Cabinet
Conclusions, 27 March 2003.
42