The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
599.
DFID
explained that its humanitarian plan involved working primarily
through
the UN. If
additional resources were made available, it would consider a
more
active
bilateral role in any UK-controlled zone. The department also
expressed
severe
doubts about the adequacy of US humanitarian
preparations.
600.
The FCO
answered three of Mr Blair’s questions of 20 February about
post-conflict
issues.258
On
preventing a Shia uprising, it advised the key would
be:
“… to
assure the varied Shia communities that they will be fairly
represented in
future Iraq
… A majority would probably hope to see a secular government …
Much
will also
depend on the length of a Coalition ‘occupation’. If they see
Western control
becoming
quasi-permanent, this too may arouse opposition, probably
encouraged
by
neighbours like Iran.”
601.
Mr Blair
told the Inquiry that, from autumn 2002:
“… we
focused very much on what we would find and how we would deal with
it.
Also … I
raised this issue myself several times, you know, how would the
Sunni/Shia
relationship
work out?
…
“There was
very much discussion of the Sunni/Shia issue, and we were well
aware
of that …
people did not believe that you would have Al Qaida coming in
from
outside and
… that you would end up in a situation where Iran … would then
try
deliberately
to destabilise the country.”259
602.
On plans for a
successor government, the FCO stated:
“We and the
US envisage a three-stage process following the
conflict.
“Immediately
after military action, the effective ruler of Iraq will be
General
McKiernan,
the Coalition Land Forces Commander, reporting to General
Franks
in the
US.
“Once the
country has been stabilised, the US intend to establish a
civilian
administration
in Iraq. To do this they have created … ORHA … We think
this
part of the
US plan is flawed. We have argued for a UN-led or UN-authorised
civil
administration,
and we do not think having a US General in charge is
sensible.
“How long
the [civilian] Transitional Administration would operate is
anyone’s guess.
The US
argue it will be 18 months – 2 years … Their level of ambition is
very high
and not
matched by their resources … They aim to help the Iraqis rewrite
their
constitution
and establish pluralist politics, to hold elections and to create a
free
market
economy.
258
Letter
Sinclair to Rycroft, 25 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Political and
Military Questions’.
259
Public
hearing, 29 January 2010, pages 192-194.
416