6.5 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, January to
March 2003
community
(tribal loyalties and divisions, and increased Islamic
fundamentalism) “could
also bring
forth unfettered chaos”.
594.
Mr David
Ochmanek (RAND Institute) concluded that, even if any invasion
were
successful
in defeating the Iraqi military and deposing Saddam Hussein’s
regime:
“Success in
the endgame – providing a secure environment for the remaking of
the
political
system and culture of Iraq – cannot simply be assumed. The
emergence of
tribally-based
or ethnically-based insurgent or terrorist groups unreconciled to
the
post-Saddam
order cannot be ruled out, particularly if the regime in Iran chose
to
sponsor and
harbour such groups …”256
595.
The Adelphi
Paper prompted Mr Blair to ask the FCO, the MOD and DFID
a
number of
questions about the military campaign (addressed in Section 6.2)
and
post‑conflict
issues on 20 February.257
The three
departments were asked to provide
answers by
24 February.
596.
On
post-conflict issues, Mr Blair asked:
“How do we
prevent the Shias rising up to take over from the
Sunnis?
“What is
our plan for the successor Government in Iraq? Is it a military
ruler?
Or a military
ruler first then a path to more democratic rule mapped
out?
“What is
the UN role in the new Government?
“What are
the precise humanitarian issues we need to address and what are
our
plans for
them?”
597.
The FCO and
DFID answered Mr Blair’s questions on post-conflict
issues.
598.
FCO
officials advised that:
•
The Shia
response to the removal of Saddam Hussein would depend to
a
great
extent on the length of the Coalition occupation.
•
The US plan
to put a US general in charge of the transitional
civilian
administration
was flawed.
•
The
duration of the transitional administration was “anyone’s
guess”.
•
The very
high level of US ambition was not matched by
resources.
•
There was
no reason the Iraqi civil service should not continue to
function.
•
UN
involvement was needed to provide the legal mandate to reform
and
restructure
Iraq.
256
Ochmanek
D. A Possible
US-led Campaign Against Iraq: Key Factors and an
Assessment.
In:
Dodge T
& Simon S (eds). Iraq at the
Crossroads: State and Society in the Shadow of Regime
Change.
IISS
Adelphi Paper 354. Oxford University Press, January
2003.
257
Minute
Rycroft to McDonald, 20 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Political and
Military Questions’.
415