The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“… [W]hat
they [the JIC] were warning of was obviously right and important,
but we
felt that
we had a better chance of managing this.
“I would
just draw attention also to what they say about Iran too, because …
their
basic view
is that it is unlikely that Iran would be
aggressive.”250
587.
Mr Blair’s
views on pre-invasion analysis of post-conflict Iraq are addressed
later
in this
Section.
588.
Several
contributions to a paper published by the International Institute
for
Strategic
Studies (IISS) in January 2003, read by Mr Blair in February,
described
the
potential for violence in a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.
589.
The paper
prompted Mr Blair to ask a number of questions about plans
for
post-conflict.
590.
In
mid-February Mr Blair read the Adelphi251
Paper
Iraq at the
Crossroads: State
and Society in
the Shadow of Regime Change, published by
the IISS.252
591.
Several
contributors to the Adelphi Paper warned of the potential for
violent
disorder in
post-conflict Iraq.253
592.
Dr Isam al
Khafaji (International School of Humanities and Social
Sciences,
University
of Amsterdam) cautioned that “the horrendous task of overthrowing
Saddam’s
regime may
prove to be less painful than that of dealing with the interest
groups that
have taken
firm root in Iraqi society and owe varying forms and degrees of
allegiance
to the
power structure that has been in place since 1968”.254
He
considered that violence
was likely
in the immediate aftermath of US military action but did not
anticipate a civil
war along
sectarian (Sunni versus Shia) lines. He also considered that a
period of
foreign
occupation was likely to be resented by the Iraqi population and
become a cause
for
violence.
593.
Looking at
southern Iraq, Dr Faleh Jabar (Birkbeck College, London)
cautioned
against
assumptions that the Shia community was homogenous and likely to
be
quiescent
in the transition to a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.255
He warned
that, while
the Shia
south might welcome an end to Ba’athist rule, the internal dynamics
of the
250
Public
hearing, 21 January 2011, pages 120-121.
251
The IISS
website describes the Adelphi series as “the principal contribution
of the IISS to policy-relevant
original
research on strategic studies and international political
concerns”.
252
Letter
Rycroft to McDonald, 20 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Political and
Military Questions’.
253
Dodge T
& Simon S (eds). Iraq at the
Crossroads: State and Society in the Shadow of Regime
Change.
IISS
Adelphi Paper 354. Oxford University Press, January
2003.
254
Al Khafaji
I. A Few Days
After: State and Society in a Post-Saddam Iraq. In:
Dodge T & Simon S (eds).
Iraq at the
Crossroads: State and Society in the Shadow of Regime
Change. IISS Adelphi
Paper 354.
Oxford
University Press, January 2003.
255
Jabar
FA. Clerics,
Tribes, Idealogues and Urban Dwellers in the South of Iraq: the
Potential for
Rebellion. In:
Dodge T & Simon S (eds). Iraq at the
Crossroads: State and Society in the Shadow of
Regime
Change. IISS Adelphi
Paper 354. Oxford University Press, January 2003.
414