The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
257.
On 10 January,
the AHGI had agreed that:
•
The
Treasury should review its November 2002 paper on the impact of
conflict
on the UK
economy (see Section 6.4).
•
The DTI
would revisit its October 2002 paper on the oil market (see
Section
10.3) and
look at the potential impact of conflict on UK
industry.
•
The
Department for Transport (DfT) would review its November 2002
transport
paper (see
Section 6.4).
•
The Cabinet
Office would circulate the latest version of the CCS paper on
the
potential
impact on the UK of operations against Iraq (see Section 6.4)
for
comments
from departments.
•
The CCS
would draft an Action Plan to be circulated to the AHGI for
comment,
setting out
actions the Government would need to take should conflict
be
imminent.
258.
Mr Jonathan
Stephens, Treasury Director Public Services, circulated a
revised
draft of
the CCS paper to Permanent Secretaries on 20
January.126
He invited
each
department
to identify key actions that needed to be taken to manage and
mitigate risks.
259.
Mr Stephens
also announced the creation of a Domestic Implications
Sub-Group
of the
AHGI (subsequently known as the Stephens Group), which would meet
for the
first time
on 24 January.
260.
The Stephens
Group continued to work on the domestic implications of
military
action
during February and March.127
261.
On 19 March,
the Private Office of Mr Gus O’Donnell, Treasury
Permanent
Secretary,
sent a paper by Mr Stephens on the domestic implications of
military action
to Permanent
Secretaries.128
The paper
stated that initial work on the issue had identified
priority
risks requiring further work. Those had been grouped into three
cross-cutting
areas:
•
public
behaviour and community cohesion;
•
health and
public service implications of military requirements;
and
•
fuel
disruption, tourism and unemployment.
126
Letter
Stephens to Phillips, 20 January 2003, ‘Iraq: Domestic Implications
of Military Action’ attaching
Paper
[unattributed and undated], ‘Domestic Impact of an Iraq Operation –
Risk to PSA Targets’, and
Paper Civil
Contingencies Secretariat Assessments Team, 17 January 2003,
‘Potential Impact on UK of
Operations
Against Iraq’.
127
Minute Dodd
to Manning, 17 March 2003, ‘Ad Hoc Group on Iraq’.
128
Email
Martin to Permsecs, 19 March 2003, ‘Domestic Implications of
Military Action’ attaching Paper
Stephens,
‘Domestic Implications of Military Action with Iraq – Next
Steps’.
356