6.5 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, January to
March 2003
“The
Planning Unit [IPU] will also focus on the shape of the Iraqi
political process
needed to
underpin a handover to Iraqi rule, which the US see as
occurring
18 months
to two years after invasion. Other issues include the
management
of Iraq’s
oil and whether and where the UK should run its own sector until
Iraqi
sovereignty
is restored.”
254.
The record of
the next meeting, on 21 February, described the co-ordinating
role
of the
AHGI:
“… the Ad
Hoc Group draws together work related to Iraq as
follows:
•
Work on
post-Saddam issues led by the Iraq Planning Unit. This
includes
the HMT [HM
Treasury]-led sub-group on economic and financial
issues;
•
Consular
planning; and
•
HMT/CCS
[Civil Contingencies Secretariat]-led domestic
contingency
planning
(the Stephens Group).
“AHGI
receives updates on military and intelligence issues, but these
issues are
handled
elsewhere. AHGI provides a forum for deciding how to cover any new
Iraq-
related
issues. There is some read across from pre-existing DTI [Department
of
Trade and
Industry] and HMT Whitehall groups looking at oil.”124
255.
The
evidence in this Section indicates that, after the creation of the
IPU,
neither
Sir Michael Jay, nor Mr Ricketts as the senior FCO
official tasked by Sir
Michael to
direct all aspects of FCO Iraq work, instructed the IPU or other
parts of
the FCO
contributing to the IPU to:
•
provide
thorough analysis of a range of possible post-conflict
scenarios,
not just
the best case;
•
identify
the need for contingency plans and preparations to address
each
of those
scenarios; or
•
provide a
realistic assessment of the UK’s civilian capabilities
and
resources
in the light of its likely obligations in Iraq.
256.
After
expressions of concern by Permanent Secretaries about the possible
impact
on the UK
of war in Iraq, Sir Andrew Turnbull had agreed in January 2003 that
the AHGI
should
conduct further work on domestic contingencies.125
124
Minute Dodd
to Manning, 25 February 2003, ‘Ad Hoc Group on Iraq’.
125
Minute Dodd
to Manning, 13 January 2003, ‘Ad Hoc Group on Iraq’.
355