The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
888.
Mr Tony Colman
(Labour), Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on the
UN,
informed
the House of Commons that he had been reassured by what he had been
told
about UN
humanitarian planning during a recent visit to New
York.428
889.
In the House
of Lords, Lord Moynihan (Conservative) warned that “the use of
force
against
Iraq opens up the possibility of an on-going military and political
entanglement”
and asked
for assurances that the UK would not enter into a conflict without
a “clear,
effective
and well-planned exit strategy”.429
890.
Baroness
Symons replied:
“The
government of Iraq is a matter for the Iraqi people. We believe
that the
people of
Iraq deserve a better government, one based on the rule of law,
respect
for human
rights, economic freedom and prosperity. We welcome the
external
opposition’s
role in discussing the future of Iraq and in debating issues such
as
democracy,
that cannot be discussed in Iraq … As at the end of the Gulf War,
Britain
would
remain at the forefront of efforts to help the Iraqi people into
the future.”430
891.
The first
edition of a paper by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)
on
the
potential impact on the UK of operations against Iraq assessed
that, the longer
any
dislocation lasted, the more likely it was that disruptive
challenges would
emerge.
Those might include:
•
oil price
rises;
•
general
uncertainty affecting the stock market;
•
protests
and counter-demonstrations;
•
exploitation
of the situation by Al Qaida and other Islamic extremist
groups;
•
military
resources unavailable to cover industrial action other than
the
firefighters’
dispute.
892.
On 27
November, Mr Drummond sent No.10 and the Private Offices
of
departments
represented in the AHGI a CCS assessment of the potential impact on
the
UK of
operations against Iraq.431
The CCS
assessed that:
“The most
important factor within the UK will be public confidence and its
extension,
market and
commercial confidence. The extent to which there is a public
perception
that
everyday life and services have been altered and the terrorist
threat increased
will be a
major factor. A short, successful campaign would have the minimum
impact.
428
House of
Commons, Official
Report, 25
November 2002, column 116.
429
House of
Lords, Official
Report, 25
November 2002, columns 557-558.
430
House of
Lords, Official
Report, 25
November 2002, column 558.
431
Minute
Drummond to Manning, 27 November 2002, ‘Potential Impact on the UK
of Operations Against
Iraq’
attaching Paper Civil Contingencies Secretariat, 21 November 2002,
‘Potential Impact on UK of
Operations
Against Iraq’.
262