6.4 | Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, mid-2001 to January 2003

786. Mr Fraser’s note was included in No.10’s briefing pack for Mr Blair before the

No.10 seminar with six academics on 19 November.386

787. Mr Blair and Mr Straw held an off-the-record seminar on Iraq with six academics on

19 November. The participants were:

• Professor Lawrence Freedman, King’s College London;

• Professor Michael Clarke, King’s College London;

• Dr Toby Dodge, Chatham House;

• Professor George Joffe, Cambridge University;

• Mr Steven Simon (a former US diplomat), International Institute for Strategic

Studies;

• Dr Tripp;

• Mr Jonathan Powell;

• Sir David Manning;

• Baroness Morgan;

• Mr Bowen;

• Mr Chaplin;

• Mr Rycroft.387

788. The seminar was proposed by Professor Freedman as a means to “raise some of

the less obvious issues and perspectives that need to be discussed”.388

789. Mr Rycroft advised Mr Blair to issue a disclaimer at the start of the seminar, which

explained that:

“… this session is not about Iraq policy directly, the fact that we are having it does

not mean anything about our policy, and any discussion of post-Saddam Iraq does

not mean that our policy is regime change”.389

790. No.10 issued a list of questions as an agenda for the seminar. Mr Rycroft explained

to Mr Blair that the agenda was not designed to be adhered to religiously, but “to spark

off an informal, free-flowing discussion”:

“1. Can Iraq only be ruled by a strong authoritarian regime? Are other models

possible? Why have they not worked in the past? Is regional devolution a

starter?

2. Can the different communities work together? What are the aspirations of the

Shia and the Kurds? What relations do the Iraqi Shia have with Iran?

386 Manuscript comments Manning and Rycroft on Minute Fraser to Reynolds, 5 November 2002,

‘Iraq Futures’.

387 Letter Rycroft to Sinclair, 20 November 2002, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s seminar with academics,

19 November’.

388 Email Freedman to Powell, 23 September 2002, ‘Expert group’.

389 Minute Rycroft to Prime Minister, 18 November 2002, ‘Iraq: Seminar with Academics, Tuesday’.

245