6.4 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, mid-2001
to January 2003
183.
Mr Hoon
commissioned work from MOD officials on military options, to
be
conducted
“on very close hold”.
184.
Limited
Whitehall co-ordination took place in the MOD-based Pigott
Group.
185.
In the
absence of direction from No.10 after Crawford:
•
the FCO was
effectively sidelined from planning and preparation
for
possible
military action in Iraq at a stage when policy remained fluid
and
FCO views
on strategic direction might have been expected to have
most
influence;
•
UK military
planning dominated Whitehall consideration of Iraq,
with
the
consequence that any potential UK involvement was
considered
principally
in terms of the military role;
•
DFID
expertise on post-conflict issues was excluded from discussion
as
strategy
took shape;
•
the
systematic research and analysis of post-conflict issues that
was
needed to
underpin UK policy was not commissioned; and
•
Mr Blair
sought to influence US thinking on post-conflict issues
with
only a
broad concept of the post-conflict task and no clearly defined
UK
negotiating
position.
186.
Many of the
failings in UK planning and preparation over the coming
year
stemmed
from those developments.
187.
Mr Blair
discussed Iraq with President Bush at Crawford, Texas, on 6 April.
The
discussions
are addressed in more detail in Section 3.2.
188.
A three-page
record of the discussions on Iraq was circulated on a secret
and
strictly
personal basis by Sir David Manning.112
Sir David
recorded that, among other
issues, Mr
Blair and President Bush had discussed who might replace Saddam
Hussein
if action
were taken to topple him.
189.
Mr Powell told
the Inquiry:
“… one of
the things that is so interesting is that the Prime Minister was
talking at
that stage
about the things that you would need to do to make this successful
… He
talked
about what would happen on the day after. If you go into Iraq, are
you going
to be
prepared for what happens thereafter? So I think he in many ways
listed all the
right
questions at that stage when he was talking to Bush at
Crawford.”113
112
Letter
Manning to McDonald, 8 April 2002, ‘Prime Minister’s Visit to the
United States: 5-7 April’.
113
Public
hearing, 18 January 2010, page 26.
145