6.4 |
Planning and preparation for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, mid-2001
to January 2003
157.
US
post-conflict planning began to take shape in spring 2002 at
meetings of the
NSC
Deputies Committee98
involving
DoD, the State Department, the CIA and the
Pentagon
Joint Staff:
“The
Deputies Committee focused on three concepts: a liberation model in
which
Iraqis
would quickly take charge through a provisional government; a
military
administration
led by CENTCOM [the US Central Command]; or a civilian
transitional
authority,
perhaps run under UN auspices.”99
158.
What might
replace Saddam Hussein’s regime was one of the themes of
talks
between Mr
Blair and Vice President Dick Cheney in London on 11
March.
159.
The FCO
briefing for Mr Blair’s meeting with Vice President Cheney on 11
March
covered a
range of issues.100
Iraq was
highlighted as:
“… the main
issue, including for the media given speculation that the US are
moving
towards
early decisions on military action … This will … be an important
opportunity
… to get a
feel for where the debate in Washington stands and what options
are
emerging.”
160.
The FCO
suggested that the key messages for Mr Cheney on Iraq
included:
“Issues
arising from regime change on which I [Mr Blair] would welcome
your
thoughts:
•
Assessment
of Iraqi Opposition …;
•
Require
serious movement on MEPP to give us space in which to
act;
•
Day after
issues loom large. Territorial integrity of Iraq important.
Likely
replacement
for Saddam – another Sunni strongman. Establishing
representative
government would require long term commitment;
•
Genuine
consultation and construction of convincing legal basis will
be
161.
Mr Matthew
Rycroft, Mr Blair’s Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs,
advised
Mr Blair
that he needed Vice President Cheney to give him Washington’s
latest views
on a
number of issues, including “what to do on the day after regime
change”.102
98 A
committee of the National Security Council (NSC), chaired by the
Deputy National Security Advisor
(Mr Stephen
Hadley from 2001 to 2005) and including the deputies to the members
of the NSC. The
Deputies
Committee is the senior sub-Cabinet inter-agency forum for
consideration of policy issues
relating to
US national security.
99
Bowen SW
Jr. Hard
Lessons: The Iraq Reconstruction Experience. U.S.
Government Printing
Office, 2009.
100
Letter
McDonald to Rycroft, 8 March 2002, ‘US Vice President’s call on the
Prime Minister, 11 March’.
101
Paper
[unattributed and undated], ‘Visit of US Vice President Dick Cheney
11 March: Iraq’.
102
Minute
Rycroft to Prime Minister, 8 March 2002, ‘Lunch with Dick
Cheney’.
141