6.2 |
Military planning for the invasion, January to March
2003
108.
Mr Johnston
also reported that PJHQ had:
“… noted
that US planning, which continued to develop, implied that there
might be
additional
tasks for the UK … This might involve the UK being invited … to do
early
seizure
operations. The UK force package would not be configured to conduct
such
tasks.
Chiefs accepted this, but noted that, politically, it would not be
easy to refuse
the US when
the time came if UK forces had broadly the right
capacity.”
109.
Mr Blair
and Mr Hoon, No.10 officials and Mr Scarlett were briefed on
the
proposals
to deploy a UK division to the South on 15 January.
110.
Mr Blair
was informed that the MOD would be seeking an urgent
decision
on the way
ahead by the end of that week.
111.
Most of the
questions identified by No.10 for discussion, particularly
those
on
post-conflict issues and costs, required cross-departmental advice
and
collective
consideration.
112.
There is no
indication that other departments were consulted formally
by
the Chiefs
of Staff, the MOD or No.10 before the meeting on 15
January.
113.
Nor were
they consulted before Mr Blair’s decision on 17 March
to
deploy troops.
114.
Advice and a
draft letter to No.10 were forwarded to Mr Hoon’s Private Office
on
15 January
informing him that the Chiefs of Staff endorsed the proposed role
in southern
Iraq and
the deployment of HQ 1 (UK) Div, 7 Armoured Brigade and 16 Air
Assault
Brigade in
addition to the Amphibious Task Group (ATG).29
115.
Mr Hoon was
advised that a number of wider issues remained to be
resolved
before it
could be concluded that the US plan represented a winning
concept.
Those
included:
•
the legal
basis for operations against Iraq;
•
the
“ability of the US to develop an overall winning concept which
delivers the
strategic
effects required in the North”; and
•
“a credible
plan for the aftermath”.
116.
Mr Blair met
Mr Hoon, the Chiefs of Staff and others30
to discuss
planning for Iraq
on the
evening of 15 January.31
29
Minute
Johnson to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 15 January 2003, ‘Iraq: UK
Land Contribution’.
30
Baroness
Morgan, Sir David Manning, Mr Scarlett, Mr Jonathan Powell,
Mr Campbell and Mr Rycroft
attended
from No.10/Cabinet Office. Mr Adam Ingram, the Minister of State
for the Armed Forces,
Sir Kevin
Tebbit, Lt Gen Pigott, Air Marshal French, Maj Gen Fry and Mr Lee
also attended.
31
Minute
MA/DCJO(Ops) to MA/CJO, ‘Briefing to Prime Minister’ attaching
Briefing [unattributed and
undated],
‘Brief to PM – 1715 Wed 15 Jan’ and slide
presentation.
403